Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

Kulicke And Soffa Industries, / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. </li>
<li>Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Kulicke &amp; Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables</li>
</ul>


This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Kulicke &amp; Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables


Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. </li>
<li>The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. </li>
<li>These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings. </li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. 
The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. 
These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings. 


Overearning Short Candidates: Photronics, LSB Industries, Otter Tail, Kulicke & Soffa

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. </li>
<li>The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. </li>
<li>These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. 
The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. 
These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.


Overearning Short Candidates: Alpha Metall, MarineMx, ON Semi, Kulicke & Soffa, Pool Co, Century Com

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>With speculation regarding ASM PT going private <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/exclusive-hong-kong-listed-semiconductor-maker-asm-pacific-plans-to-go-private-sources" target="_blank" rel="noopener">emerging</a> we provide below, an examination of the company’s valuation history and its multiples compared to a variety of peers. Our analysis suggests that if the company is indeed subject to an offer, relatively significant upside remains.</p>

With speculation regarding ASM PT going private emerging we provide below, an examination of the company’s valuation history and its multiples compared to a variety of peers. Our analysis suggests that if the company is indeed subject to an offer, relatively significant upside remains.

ASM Pacific Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> discussed ASM International’s outperformance against equity affiliate ASM Pacific Technology in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asmpt-s-disconnect-with-asm-na" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37163" rel="noopener">ASMPT's Disconnect With ASM NA</a>. We provide here some context on the fundamentals of the two companies and would flag ASM Pacific Technology competitor BE Semiconductor Industries as a player worth paying attention to.</p>

David Blennerhassett discussed ASM International’s outperformance against equity affiliate ASM Pacific Technology in ASMPT's Disconnect With ASM NA. We provide here some context on the fundamentals of the two companies and would flag ASM Pacific Technology competitor BE Semiconductor Industries as a player worth paying attention to.

Fundamental Factors to Consider When Trading ASM PT and ASMI

United States

Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets capital equipment, related spare parts, and packaging materials used to assemble semiconductor devices. The Company also services, maintains, repairs, and upgrades assembly equipment. Kulicke's equipment is used in wire bonding systems, wafer dicing saws, and die bonders.

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Kulicke And Soffa Industries, (KLIC US)

Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

This model discusses companies facing recent declines in estimates. This week we flag: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Overearning Short Candidates: Photronics, LSB Industries, Otter Tail, Kulicke & Soffa

Margin over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the reasons for the margin increase are unsustainable or fraudulent. This week:...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Overearning Short Candidates: Alpha Metall, MarineMx, ON Semi, Kulicke & Soffa, Pool Co, Century Com

Over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the margin increases are either unsustainable or fraudulent. This week: Alpha Metall,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

ASM Pacific – Valuations Vs. Peers

With speculation regarding ASM PT going private emerging we provide below, an examination of the company’s valuation history and its multiples...

Mio Kato

Fundamental Factors to Consider When Trading ASM PT and ASMI

David Blennerhassett discussed ASM International’s outperformance against equity affiliate ASM Pacific Technology in ASMPT's Disconnect With ASM...

Mio Kato

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