Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.</p>

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The latest Census in Japan confirms the ongoing fall in total population across most of the country but reveals surprising growth markets in small pockets, particularly around Greater Tokyo which now accounts for just under 30% of the total population.</p><p>There are also ever growing numbers of single people, expanding the promising solo market. In the bigger cities, younger people bring new types of consumption but the increase in older singles is a growing problem.</p><p>The following provides background macro trends for any investor looking at the Japan consumer space and some stocks we think will benefit from these macro trends.</p>

The latest Census in Japan confirms the ongoing fall in total population across most of the country but reveals surprising growth markets in small pockets, particularly around Greater Tokyo which now accounts for just under 30% of the total population.There are also ever growing numbers of single people, expanding the promising solo market. In the bigger cities, younger people bring new types of consumption but the increase in older singles is a growing problem.The following provides background macro trends for any investor looking at the Japan consumer space and some stocks we think will benefit from these macro trends.

Shrinking, Ageing Japan but a Growing Solo Market

Will Semiconductor   Shan / Technical Analysis

<p>New developments suggest caution is warranted, and leads us to believe the mixed market environment is poised to continue. The new and concerning developments include widening high yield spreads in the U.S. and Europe and improving relative strength for defensive Sectors -- both are clear signs of risk aversion. At the same time, global indexes remain above critical support levels; until this changes our neutral outlook remains appropriate.</p>

New developments suggest caution is warranted, and leads us to believe the mixed market environment is poised to continue. The new and concerning developments include widening high yield spreads in the U.S. and Europe and improving relative strength for defensive Sectors -- both are clear signs of risk aversion. At the same time, global indexes remain above critical support levels; until this changes our neutral outlook remains appropriate.

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Monday's 'best' and 'worst' larger-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-bussan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4701:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/park24-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5622:1" rel="noopener">Park24 (4666 JP)</a>. In addition, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-high-tec-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10289:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui High Tec (6966 JP)</a> continues to perform well while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-i-s-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19311:1" rel="noopener">HIS Co Ltd (9603 JP)</a> saw an 8% fall in revenues for the quarter. For more, see the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/652/original/2021-03-16_06-34-24.png?1615844084" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194652"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/653/original/2021-03-16_06-39-20.png?1615844373" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194653"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/655/original/2021-03-16_06-40-03.png?1615844419" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194655"></figure></section><p></p>
</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Monday's 'best' and 'worst' larger-cap announcements came from Kobe Bussan (3038 JP) and Park24 (4666 JP). In addition, Mitsui High Tec (6966 JP) continues to perform well while HIS Co Ltd (9603 JP) saw an 8% fall in revenues for the quarter. For more, see the DETAIL section below.



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​15 -  Kobe Bussan & Park24

<p>In addition to more people buying food online, there has been significant growth in food discounting over the past year.</p><p>Don Quijote’s efforts have led the way, boosting the sector overall by winning over more and more consumers. Development of wide ranges of generic brands that it can also put into its Asian stores is also taking the chain into a different direction.</p><p>Existing discounters, notably OK Super and Lopia, are also making headway in Tokyo.</p>

In addition to more people buying food online, there has been significant growth in food discounting over the past year.Don Quijote’s efforts have led the way, boosting the sector overall by winning over more and more consumers. Development of wide ranges of generic brands that it can also put into its Asian stores is also taking the chain into a different direction.Existing discounters, notably OK Super and Lopia, are also making headway in Tokyo.

Donki Leads Food Discounting Boom in Japan

Japan

KOBE BUSSAN CO., LTD. is a supermarket franchise store operator which mainly deals in foods stuffs.  The Company also has direct-run stores.

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Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

Shrinking, Ageing Japan but a Growing Solo Market

Japan's population is contracting but there are areas of growth, particularly the solo market (single people living alone) and the senior market....

Michael Causton

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

With interest rates expected to move sideways to lower, we recommend a mix of growth and defensive Sectors. Today we focus on Services/Technology...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/15 - Kobe Bussan & Park24

Monday's 'best' and 'worst' larger-cap announcements came from Kobe Bussan (3038 JP) and Park24 (4666 JP)....................................

Campbell Gunn

Donki Leads Food Discounting Boom in Japan

Mainstream supermarkets had a good 2020 but so did the discounters, led by Don Quijote. Their expansion is a threat to full price supermarkets as...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

Shrinking, Ageing Japan but a Growing Solo Market

Japan's population is contracting but there are areas of growth, particularly the solo market (single people living alone) and the senior market....

Michael Causton

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

With interest rates expected to move sideways to lower, we recommend a mix of growth and defensive Sectors. Today we focus on Services/Technology...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​15 - Kobe Bussan & Park24

Monday's 'best' and 'worst' larger-cap announcements came from Kobe Bussan (3038 JP) and Park24 (4666 JP)....................................

Campbell Gunn

Donki Leads Food Discounting Boom in Japan

Mainstream supermarkets had a good 2020 but so did the discounters, led by Don Quijote. Their expansion is a threat to full price supermarkets as...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/15 - Kobe Bussan & Park24