HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After raising over RMB70 billion,investors have much higher expectation on BeiGene than other biotech/biopharma, because BeiGene is “different”,but the real pressure will come over the next two or three years.</li>
<li>Will BeiGene become China's first truly international pharmaceutical company, or be dragged into mediocrity by the failure of key trials or the failure of commercialization to meet the market’s expectations?</li>
<li>It is attractive if the market value is below US$20 billion. However, considering the Russia-Ukraine war and other potential external uncertainties, we advise investors to keep alert.</li>
</ul>


After raising over RMB70 billion,investors have much higher expectation on BeiGene than other biotech/biopharma, because BeiGene is “different”,but the real pressure will come over the next two or three years.
Will BeiGene become China's first truly international pharmaceutical company, or be dragged into mediocrity by the failure of key trials or the failure of commercialization to meet the market’s expectations?
It is attractive if the market value is below US$20 billion. However, considering the Russia-Ukraine war and other potential external uncertainties, we advise investors to keep alert.


BeiGene Ltd (6160.HK/688235.CH) - There Is No Way to Retreat

Equity Capital Markets

Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals (Beijing) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The candidates in Biocytogen’s pipeline do not have advantages in development progress and also have to face fierce competition, so continuous large R&amp;D investment in the future would be inevitable.</li>
<li>However, the development model of Biocytogen is very novel and special, which could make it a rare target in the market if it is successfully listed.  </li>
<li>Therefore, the certainty of Biocytogen’s future growth is expected to improve gradually, and the mid- and long-term investment value would continue to increase due to the high moat.</li>
</ul>


The candidates in Biocytogen’s pipeline do not have advantages in development progress and also have to face fierce competition, so continuous large R&amp;D investment in the future would be inevitable.
However, the development model of Biocytogen is very novel and special, which could make it a rare target in the market if it is successfully listed.  
Therefore, the certainty of Biocytogen’s future growth is expected to improve gradually, and the mid- and long-term investment value would continue to increase due to the high moat.


Pre-IPO Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals - The Novel Development Model Offset the Pipeline's Shortcomings

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The expansion of the scope of positioning directly reflects the change in the importance of pharmaceutical industry in the minds of the top level, which is very pivotal.</li>
<li>The determination to abandon old development mode, and promote real innovation and high-quality internationalization remains unchanged. So, companies need to develop at a higher level and a larger stage.</li>
<li>Once achieved, it means that China's pharmaceutical industry will have another radical change after 2015, leading the industry to another new phase of growth.</li>
</ul>


The expansion of the scope of positioning directly reflects the change in the importance of pharmaceutical industry in the minds of the top level, which is very pivotal.
The determination to abandon old development mode, and promote real innovation and high-quality internationalization remains unchanged. So, companies need to develop at a higher level and a larger stage.
Once achieved, it means that China's pharmaceutical industry will have another radical change after 2015, leading the industry to another new phase of growth.


Interpretation of The "14th Five-Year Plan" For the Development of China Pharmaceutical Industry

Shenzhen Chipscreen Bioscience / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The small market space of peripheral T-cell lymphoma indication and the fierce market competition of other indications, products and candidates make the Company’s future commercialization performance uncertain. </li>
<li>The continuous large investment in R&amp;D, high selling expenses, and declining R&amp;D expending capitalization would further drag down profitability.</li>
<li>So, our view is that we are conservative about Chipscreen Biosciences’s outlook at the current stage.</li>
</ul>


The small market space of peripheral T-cell lymphoma indication and the fierce market competition of other indications, products and candidates make the Company’s future commercialization performance uncertain. 
The continuous large investment in R&amp;D, high selling expenses, and declining R&amp;D expending capitalization would further drag down profitability.
So, our view is that we are conservative about Chipscreen Biosciences’s outlook at the current stage.


Shenzhen Chipscreen Biosciences (688321.CH) - Risks Outweigh Opportunities

Betta Pharmaceuticals   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>If the R&amp;D pipeline projects are not recognized by international capital,the main reason could be either the product development progress is lagging behind or the projects are not good enough.</li>
<li>The real innovative drugs would not be affected by generics that easily, and are to overturn the size of the old drug market.</li>
<li>The real risk of Betta would be revealed in the next few years as VBP promotes. So, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.</li>
</ul>


If the R&amp;D pipeline projects are not recognized by international capital,the main reason could be either the product development progress is lagging behind or the projects are not good enough.
The real innovative drugs would not be affected by generics that easily, and are to overturn the size of the old drug market.
The real risk of Betta would be revealed in the next few years as VBP promotes. So, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.


Pre-IPO Betta Pharmaceuticals - Lack of Staying Power

China

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

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Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)

BeiGene Ltd (6160.HK/688235.CH) - There Is No Way to Retreat

BeiGene’s cash flow can't keep up with the cash burn rate in long term.So BeiGene has to deliver solid commercialization results,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals - The Novel Development Model Offset the Pipeline's Shortcomings

We analyzed the unique development strategy of Biocytogen, and also pointed out the concerns on its pipeline. However, its business model is hard...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Interpretation of The "14th Five-Year Plan" For the Development of China Pharmaceutical Industry

For the newly released "14th Five-year Plan" of China pharmaceutical industry, we analyzed key points and our interpretation. Once achieved, it...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shenzhen Chipscreen Biosciences (688321.CH) - Risks Outweigh Opportunities

This insight analyzed Chipscreen Biosciences about its key products/candidates, small market space of PTCL, fierce competition, single product...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Betta Pharmaceuticals - Lack of Staying Power

The insight analyzed Betta about key products such as Icotinib, Ensartinib, MIL60, CM082, concerns on slow product iteration,fierce...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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