Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).</li>
<li>The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.</li>
<li>If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).
The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.
If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership


Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Health Care Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.</li>
<li>Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)</li>
<li>Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives</li>
</ul>


As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

<ul>
<li>The weight of the evidence suggests that the lows for this bear market have likely already been established, but that does not mean it will be smooth sailing from here.</li>
<li>The SPX and NDX are both testing important resistance levels (4165-4180 and the YTD downtrend, respectively), making this a logical spot for the indexes to stall and potentially pull back.</li>
<li>Ultimately, we would expect to see support near their 50-day MAs as the market goes through a bottoming process. We remain neutral overall.</li>
</ul>


The weight of the evidence suggests that the lows for this bear market have likely already been established, but that does not mean it will be smooth sailing from here.
The SPX and NDX are both testing important resistance levels (4165-4180 and the YTD downtrend, respectively), making this a logical spot for the indexes to stall and potentially pull back.
Ultimately, we would expect to see support near their 50-day MAs as the market goes through a bottoming process. We remain neutral overall.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

<div>The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Additionally, the mild deterioration in market dynamics that we discussed the past two weeks is now much less of a concern. Continue to buy dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Health Care.</div>

The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Additionally, the mild deterioration in market dynamics that we discussed the past two weeks is now much less of a concern. Continue to buy dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Health Care.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

United States

Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc. researches and develops biopharmaceutical drugs. The Company engages in the research and development of small molecule drugs to treat neuropsychiatric and neurological diseases and other disorders of the central nervous system. Intra-Cellular Therapies offers its products to the medical industry.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Iti Inc (ITCI US)

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Bullish Outlook Intact; Expecting Short-term Support at $SPX 5370-5380 and $QQQ $468-469 (20-day MAs...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Shifting exposure toward value and defensives. Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP and Health Care $XLV to market weight. $ARKK and $IPO with bearish...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

$SPX is testing important resistance in the 4165-4180 area, the same resistance level we were monitoring in early June before the market tumbled 13...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Continue to buy dips.

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)