Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17527:1" rel="noopener">Huazhu Group (HTHT US)</a> plans to raise around US$900m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>I have covered the background of the deal in my earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huazhu-hk-secondary-listing-early-look-needs-the-cash-more-than-most-secondary-candidates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Huazhu HK Secondary Listing - Early Look - Needs the Cash More than Most Secondary Candidates.</a></p>
<p>In this insight, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and what to do with the ADR while waiting for the completion of the Hong Kong listing.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p></p>
<p><strong>Links to my previous notes on the topic:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yum-china-hk-ipo-trading-index-flows-to-the-rescue" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yum China HK IPO Trading - Index Flows to the Rescue</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yum-china-hk-listing-relatively-bigger-should-offer-a-bigger-discount" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yum China HK Listing - Relatively Bigger, Should Offer a Bigger Discount</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yum-china-hk-listing-early-look-relatively-bigger-deal-should-have-a-relatively-bigger-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yum China HK Listing - Early Look - Relatively Bigger Deal Should Have a Relatively Bigger Impact</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-netease-secondary-listings-what-to-do-with-the-adr-lessons-from-baba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD &amp; NetEase Secondary Listings - What to Do with the ADR? Lessons from Baba</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-netease-and-other-secondary-listing-index-ftse-msci-hsi-and-hscei-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD, NetEase and Other Secondary Listing - Index (FTSE, MSCI, HSI And HSCEI) Impact</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-com-hk-listing-early-look-getting-the-ball-rolling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD.com HK Listing - Early Look - Getting the Ball Rolling</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-secondary-listing-early-to-file-but-late-to-launch-puts-it-in-a-peculiar-position" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD Secondary Listing - Early to File but Late to Launch Puts It in a Peculiar Position</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-secondary-listing-behaving-better-than-netease-so-far" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD Secondary Listing - Behaving Better than NetEase, so Far</a></li>
</ul>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-secondary-trading-update-strong-demand-but-won-t-have-any-index-flows" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD Secondary Trading Update - Strong Demand but Won’t Have Any Index Flows</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netease-hk-listing-early-look-follow-the-leader" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NetEase HK Listing - Early Look - Follow the Leader</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netease-secondary-listing-relatively-bigger-than-baba-should-offer-relatively-bigger-discount" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NetEase Secondary Listing - Relatively Bigger than Baba, Should Offer Relatively Bigger Discount</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netease-secondary-listing-doing-a-beigene-rather-than-a-baba-risk-reward-shifting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NetEase Secondary Listing - Doing a BeiGene Rather than a Baba, Risk Reward Shifting</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/netease-secondary-trading-update-index-flows-to-provide-near-term-support" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NetEase Secondary Trading Update - Index Flows to Provide near Term Support</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-the-real-ipo-only-begins-on-the-11th-day-post-listing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​Secondary Listing - The Real IPO Only Begins on the 11th Day Post Listing</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li dir="ltr">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-proposed-stock-connect-changes-might-throw-a-spanner-in-the-works" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​Secondary Listing - Proposed Stock Connect Changes Might Throw a Spanner in the Works</a></p>
</li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-what-to-do-with-the-us-adr-while-waiting-for-the-hk-listing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​​Secondary Listing - What to Do with the US ADR While Waiting for the HK Listing?</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-not-good-for-the-adr-should-have-put-a-price-range-to-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​​​Secondary Listing -  Not Good for the ADR, Should Have Put a Price Range to It</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-neither-here-not-there-index-announcements-comparison-to-other-deals" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​​​​Secondary -  Neither Here Nor There - Index Announcements, Comparison to Other Deals</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-ipo-secondary-listing-trading-time-to-converge-that-s-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba IPO/​​​​​Secondary Listing Trading - Time to Converge, That’s It</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a></li>
</ul>
</div>


Huazhu Group (HTHT US) plans to raise around US$900m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.


I have covered the background of the deal in my earlier note, Huazhu HK Secondary Listing - Early Look - Needs the Cash More than Most Secondary Candidates.
In this insight, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and what to do with the ADR while waiting for the completion of the Hong Kong listing.



Links to my previous notes on the topic:

Yum China HK IPO Trading - Index Flows to the Rescue

Yum China HK Listing - Relatively Bigger, Should Offer a Bigger Discount.
Yum China HK Listing - Early Look - Relatively Bigger Deal Should Have a Relatively Bigger Impact




JD &amp; NetEase Secondary Listings - What to Do with the ADR? Lessons from Baba




JD, NetEase and Other Secondary Listing - Index (FTSE, MSCI, HSI And HSCEI) Impact
JD.com HK Listing - Early Look - Getting the Ball Rolling




JD Secondary Listing - Early to File but Late to Launch Puts It in a Peculiar Position
JD Secondary Listing - Behaving Better than NetEase, so Far




JD Secondary Trading Update - Strong Demand but Won’t Have Any Index Flows




NetEase HK Listing - Early Look - Follow the Leader
NetEase Secondary Listing - Relatively Bigger than Baba, Should Offer Relatively Bigger Discount
NetEase Secondary Listing - Doing a BeiGene Rather than a Baba, Risk Reward Shifting




NetEase Secondary Trading Update - Index Flows to Provide near Term Support




Alibaba IPO/​Secondary Listing - The Real IPO Only Begins on the 11th Day Post Listing





Alibaba IPO/​Secondary Listing - Proposed Stock Connect Changes Might Throw a Spanner in the Works

Alibaba IPO/​​Secondary Listing - What to Do with the US ADR While Waiting for the HK Listing?
Alibaba IPO/​​​Secondary Listing -  Not Good for the ADR, Should Have Put a Price Range to It
Alibaba IPO/​​​​Secondary -  Neither Here Nor There - Index Announcements, Comparison to Other Deals




Alibaba IPO/​​​​​Secondary Listing Trading - Time to Converge, That’s It
China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang
China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home
China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List



Huazhu HK Secondary Listing - Needs the Money but Looks Toppish

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is above 60,000 we are constructive from a price perspective.  China (<strong>CSI 300, MSCI China</strong>) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (<strong>TAIEX</strong>) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while South Korea (<strong>KOSPI</strong>) and India (<strong>SENSEX</strong>) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure.</p>

The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is above 60,000 we are constructive from a price perspective.  China (CSI 300, MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while South Korea (KOSPI) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure.

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Not surprisingly, online travel agency (OTA) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK)</a> reported substantial YoY declines in revenue and earnings in Q220, though market conditions and results were better than in Q120, when Covid19 and the government's response brought travel to a halt.</p>
<p>Tongcheng-ELong's revenue mix has changed as a result of the pandemic, in both positive and negative ways. While it's positive to see increased revenue from advertising and continued strength in its position in smaller cities, we believe the cessation of international travel hurts profitability. In addition, high fixed operating expenses also hit earnings in the second quarter.</p>
<p>As domestic travel normalized in the months following the peak of the pandemic in China, Tongcheng-ELong's shares have rallied by over 60%. Given the moderating pace of the recovery in Chinese travel demand, and stubbornly high operating expenses, we do not expect Tongcheng-ELong's earnings to suddenly 'snap back' in H220.</p>

Not surprisingly, online travel agency (OTA) Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK) reported substantial YoY declines in revenue and earnings in Q220, though market conditions and results were better than in Q120, when Covid19 and the government's response brought travel to a halt.
Tongcheng-ELong's revenue mix has changed as a result of the pandemic, in both positive and negative ways. While it's positive to see increased revenue from advertising and continued strength in its position in smaller cities, we believe the cessation of international travel hurts profitability. In addition, high fixed operating expenses also hit earnings in the second quarter.
As domestic travel normalized in the months following the peak of the pandemic in China, Tongcheng-ELong's shares have rallied by over 60%. Given the moderating pace of the recovery in Chinese travel demand, and stubbornly high operating expenses, we do not expect Tongcheng-ELong's earnings to suddenly 'snap back' in H220.

Tongcheng-ELong (780 HK) Q2 Results Reflect Changing Travel Patterns, Stubbornly High OpEx

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/498/original/BANNER-TOURISM.png?1598998817" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156498"></figure>
<p>Chinese outbound travel remained stagnant in July. We will watch closely to see if relaxed travel restrictions in a few markets result in a surge in outbound travel activity. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Chinese domestic travel demand continued to recover in July, though activity remains far below 2019 levels. There is evidence consumers are opting for cheaper modes of travel, and this appears to benefit rail, highway, and Low Cost (air) Carriers. </p>
<p>Given the July numbers and our admitedly pessimistic outlook, it's difficult to get excited about shares of most Chinese travel service providers. We remain negative on Trip.com but think stocks of hotel chain Huazhu Group and the LCCs could outperform peers in the near-term. </p>


Chinese outbound travel remained stagnant in July. We will watch closely to see if relaxed travel restrictions in a few markets result in a surge in outbound travel activity. 
Meanwhile, Chinese domestic travel demand continued to recover in July, though activity remains far below 2019 levels. There is evidence consumers are opting for cheaper modes of travel, and this appears to benefit rail, highway, and Low Cost (air) Carriers. 
Given the July numbers and our admitedly pessimistic outlook, it's difficult to get excited about shares of most Chinese travel service providers. We remain negative on Trip.com but think stocks of hotel chain Huazhu Group and the LCCs could outperform peers in the near-term. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound Still Stagnant | Domestic Rebound Suggests Wary Consumer

<p>The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s <strong>EURO STOXX 50</strong> and Japan’s <strong>TOPIX </strong>have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: <strong>Services, Communications, Industrials, </strong>and <strong>Transportation.</strong></p>

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

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Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

Huazhu HK Secondary Listing - Needs the Money but Looks Toppish

Huazhu Group (HTHT US) has filed confidentially for a US$1bn secondary listing in Hong Kong, as per media reports. In our earlier insight, China...

Sumeet Singh

Remain Overweight EM Relative To EAFE

The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is...

Vermilion Research

Tongcheng-ELong (780 HK) Q2 Results Reflect Changing Travel Patterns, Stubbornly High OpEx

point 1 point 2 point 3 conclusions

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound Still Stagnant | Domestic Rebound Suggests Wary Consumer

Chinese outbound travel remained stagnant in July. We will watch closely to see if relaxed travel restrictions in a few markets result in a surge...

Tracking Traffic

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

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