HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The government issued a central infrastructure investment budget of RMB26.52 billion in healthcare sector for 2022. Related leading domestic manufacturers would maintain relatively stable growth in the next 2-3 years.</li>
<li>Behind the wave of import substitution of endoscopes, the demand for anesthetic drugs would also increase, which are not affected by VBP. We think this market deserves investors’ attention.</li>
<li>Considering the large number of insomniacs, the resulting demand for treatment makes the insomniacs market show a good growth prospect.</li>
</ul>


The government issued a central infrastructure investment budget of RMB26.52 billion in healthcare sector for 2022. Related leading domestic manufacturers would maintain relatively stable growth in the next 2-3 years.
Behind the wave of import substitution of endoscopes, the demand for anesthetic drugs would also increase, which are not affected by VBP. We think this market deserves investors’ attention.
Considering the large number of insomniacs, the resulting demand for treatment makes the insomniacs market show a good growth prospect.


China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.18) - Central Investment Budget, Anesthetic Drugs, Insomniacs Demand

Equity Bottom-Up

Hutchison China MediTech Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchison-china-meditech-ltd-7c2c4b58-ca71-4ac4-befb-345e8d0f10ca" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27342:1" rel="noopener">Hutchison China MediTech Ltd (HCM US)</a> (Hutchmed) didn’t perform well. Its cash holdings could last about two and a half years considering the cash burn rate.</li>
<li>Hutchmed’s three major commercialized products would all face different challenges. Feedbacks from FDA/MAA cast a shadow on the Company's internationalization prospects. </li>
<li>According to the current speed of pharmaceutical innovation, Hutchmed’s R&amp;D efficiency/productivity is not satisfactory. The current pipeline does not have core competitiveness. Bearish on outlook.</li>
</ul>



Hutchison China MediTech Ltd (HCM US) (Hutchmed) didn’t perform well. Its cash holdings could last about two and a half years considering the cash burn rate.
Hutchmed’s three major commercialized products would all face different challenges. Feedbacks from FDA/MAA cast a shadow on the Company's internationalization prospects. 
According to the current speed of pharmaceutical innovation, Hutchmed’s R&amp;D efficiency/productivity is not satisfactory. The current pipeline does not have core competitiveness. Bearish on outlook.


Hutchison China MediTech (HCM.US/13.HK) - The Pain Points Become More Pronounced

<ul>
<li>If excluding the contribution from COVID-19 related products, Pfizer’s performance growth could have been quite pessimistic. In terms of BD, Pfizer is “a big buyer” but the return is questionable. </li>
<li>We haven't seen any blockbuster new products in Pfizer’s pipeline that can make up for the losses caused by VBP/NRDL negotiation in China. Price reduction seems the only way out.</li>
<li>We cannot rule out that Pfizer may lose the China market in the event of further deterioration of Sino-US relations. This is a problem investors need to consider in advance.</li>
</ul>


If excluding the contribution from COVID-19 related products, Pfizer’s performance growth could have been quite pessimistic. In terms of BD, Pfizer is “a big buyer” but the return is questionable. 
We haven't seen any blockbuster new products in Pfizer’s pipeline that can make up for the losses caused by VBP/NRDL negotiation in China. Price reduction seems the only way out.
We cannot rule out that Pfizer may lose the China market in the event of further deterioration of Sino-US relations. This is a problem investors need to consider in advance.


Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) - What if Pfizer Loses the China Market in the Future?

<ul>
<li>Last week, centralized procurement results of orthopedic spinal consumables were released, with an average price reduction of 84%. We analyzed the impact on related companies. </li>
<li>If medical insurance reimbursement standards of Hunan Provincial are followed, there will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots for many hospitals, mainly to meet scientific research needs instead.</li>
<li>Under the appearance of the popularity of CGT CDMO, there are some hidden worries. Investors are recommended to be rational due to the overcapacity issue in the future.</li>
</ul>


Last week, centralized procurement results of orthopedic spinal consumables were released, with an average price reduction of 84%. We analyzed the impact on related companies. 
If medical insurance reimbursement standards of Hunan Provincial are followed, there will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots for many hospitals, mainly to meet scientific research needs instead.
Under the appearance of the popularity of CGT CDMO, there are some hidden worries. Investors are recommended to be rational due to the overcapacity issue in the future.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.30) - Orthopedics VBP, CGT CDMO, Surgical Robots, Bottom of HKEX

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Simcere’s profit was mainly driven by the income of non-recurring items (investment business). Due to unfriendly external environment, investors are recommended to be prepared for further decline in net profit. </li>
<li>The overall quality of Simcere’s pipeline is not high, which would be difficult to bring decent revenue in the next few years. Simcere’s transformation is not as smooth as expected.</li>
<li>In fact, over the years, Simcere's strongest capability lies in the sales rather than R&amp;D. Since the game rule changes, we are bearish on Simcere.</li>
</ul>


Simcere’s profit was mainly driven by the income of non-recurring items (investment business). Due to unfriendly external environment, investors are recommended to be prepared for further decline in net profit. 
The overall quality of Simcere’s pipeline is not high, which would be difficult to bring decent revenue in the next few years. Simcere’s transformation is not as smooth as expected.
In fact, over the years, Simcere's strongest capability lies in the sales rather than R&amp;D. Since the game rule changes, we are bearish on Simcere.


Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096.HK) 22H1 - Gloomy Outlook and Risks in Profits

China

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures and sells anti-infectives, anti-neoplastic agents, diabetes drugs, and other products. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group markets its products throughout China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.18) - Central Investment Budget, Anesthetic Drugs, Insomniacs Demand

New central infrastructure investment budget means stable growth of medical devices; Anesthetic drugs are not affected by VBP, which deserves...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hutchison China MediTech (HCM.US/13.HK) - The Pain Points Become More Pronounced

Hutchmed's position in the industry isn't in the first echelon. Its commercialized products face different challenges, with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) - What if Pfizer Loses the China Market in the Future?

Pfizer’s China business faces challenges due to VBP/NRDL negotiation and potential further deterioration of Sino-US relations. Together with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.30) - Orthopedics VBP, CGT CDMO, Surgical Robots, Bottom of HKEX

Orthopedics VBP result was released,we analyzed the impact on companies; There will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots; There're hidden...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096.HK) 22H1 - Gloomy Outlook and Risks in Profits

Simcere’s profit was driven by investment business, which will further decline due to unfriendly macro. The pipeline quality is not high, leading...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)