Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<div>The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 20 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.</div><div>
For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> there are 3 inclusions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-glass-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11940:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Glass Holdings (868 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> and 1 exclusion - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a>. This takes the number of index constituents to 60.
Following an increase in the index shares and no change in the capping factor at the July monthly rebalance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s weight will be capped at 8% leading to outflows from the stock. 
One-way turnover is estimated at 6.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$13.77bn.
There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes. We expect all inclusions to open higher on Monday. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> are surprise inclusions while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a> is a surprise deletion. The largest passive impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a> where there will be over 7 days of ADV to sell. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a>has been announced as an inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> as well.
Big Tech is conspicuous by its absence among the inclusions in the review. HSIL seems to have consciously avoided the stocks due to the constantly changing regulatory landscape in China. HSIL is also taking its time in moving towards it goal of reaching 80 index constituents by mid-2022. That leaves 20 stocks to be included at the next 3 index reviews.
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The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 20 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.
For the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) there are 3 inclusions - Xinyi Glass Holdings (868 HK), Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) and China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) and 1 exclusion - Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK). This takes the number of index constituents to 60.
Following an increase in the index shares and no change in the capping factor at the July monthly rebalance, Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s weight will be capped at 8% leading to outflows from the stock. 
One-way turnover is estimated at 6.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$13.77bn.
There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes. We expect all inclusions to open higher on Monday. Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) and China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) are surprise inclusions while Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK) is a surprise deletion. The largest passive impact will be on Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK) where there will be over 7 days of ADV to sell. Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)has been announced as an inclusion to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) as well.
Big Tech is conspicuous by its absence among the inclusions in the review. HSIL seems to have consciously avoided the stocks due to the constantly changing regulatory landscape in China. HSIL is also taking its time in moving towards it goal of reaching 80 index constituents by mid-2022. That leaves 20 stocks to be included at the next 3 index reviews.


HSI Index Rebalance: Big Tech Avoided; Few Changes Now Means More Changes Later

Hang Seng Indexes has increased the number of index shares and free float for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a>, with no change made to the capping factor.This will lead to an increase in the index weight for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and passive funds benchmarked to the indices will need to buy the stock at the close of trading on 16 July while selling the other index constituents.For July, we estimate passive funds will need to buy 45.52m shares (HK$9.34bn; 2 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>. The largest impact of passive selling in terms of days of ADV will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14433:1" rel="noopener">CLP Holdings (2 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)</a>.However, passive funds will need to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> at the implementation of the quarterly rebalance in September when the capping factor will be lowered to cap the weight of the stock at 8% in the three indices.

Hang Seng Indexes has increased the number of index shares and free float for Alibaba Group (9988 HK) in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX), with no change made to the capping factor.This will lead to an increase in the index weight for Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and passive funds benchmarked to the indices will need to buy the stock at the close of trading on 16 July while selling the other index constituents.For July, we estimate passive funds will need to buy 45.52m shares (HK$9.34bn; 2 days of ADV) of Alibaba Group (9988 HK). The largest impact of passive selling in terms of days of ADV will be on HSBC Holdings (5 HK), CLP Holdings (2 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK), Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK).However, passive funds will need to sell Alibaba Group (9988 HK) at the implementation of the quarterly rebalance in September when the capping factor will be lowered to cap the weight of the stock at 8% in the three indices.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Passive Inflow from HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH Trackers in July

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>The 2021 medical insurance catalogue adjustment plan is soliciting opinions, and drugs approved for market launch during 2020.8.17 - 2021.6.30 will be eligible to participate in the negotiations.</li>
<li>Related departments issued new documents stating that from June to December this year, they will jointly carry out a special campaign to crack down on illegal medical beauty activities.</li>
<li>The General Office of the State Council issued a new document about the  development of public hospitals.</li>
</ul>Company news:News about the updated progress on drugs of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a>.Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 2.8%, while CSI 300 decreased 2.34% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:
The 2021 medical insurance catalogue adjustment plan is soliciting opinions, and drugs approved for market launch during 2020.8.17 - 2021.6.30 will be eligible to participate in the negotiations.
Related departments issued new documents stating that from June to December this year, they will jointly carry out a special campaign to crack down on illegal medical beauty activities.
The General Office of the State Council issued a new document about the  development of public hospitals.
Company news:News about the updated progress on drugs of BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK), Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK).Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 2.8%, while CSI 300 decreased 2.34% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

When it comes to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a>, people would  also mention <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a>, because its chairlady and CEO Zhong Huijuan is the wife of Hengrui’s Sun Piaoyang. Previously, Hansoh started with generic drugs (mainly first-to-market generic drugs), and has several blockbuster varieties with annual sales of more than RMB1 billion, such as zefei, pulaile, oulanning and so on. After more than 20 years of development, the Company has tablished a broad, diversified and leading drug portfolio in central nervous system (“CNS”) diseases, oncology, anti-infectives and diabetes. This article mainly analyzed the core products, the pipeline, the key risks, the thoughts on valuation and the catalysts.

When it comes to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), people would  also mention Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK), because its chairlady and CEO Zhong Huijuan is the wife of Hengrui’s Sun Piaoyang. Previously, Hansoh started with generic drugs (mainly first-to-market generic drugs), and has several blockbuster varieties with annual sales of more than RMB1 billion, such as zefei, pulaile, oulanning and so on. After more than 20 years of development, the Company has tablished a broad, diversified and leading drug portfolio in central nervous system (“CNS”) diseases, oncology, anti-infectives and diabetes. This article mainly analyzed the core products, the pipeline, the key risks, the thoughts on valuation and the catalysts.

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692.HK) - Insights on Core Products, Pipeline, Catalysts and Key Risks

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Betta Pharmaceuticals   / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betta-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25883:1" rel="noopener">Betta Pharmaceuticals (300558 CH)</a> is a biopharma company in China focused on the development, manufacture and commercialization of innovative therapies. Betta’s drug pipeline consists of two marketed therapies, five late clinical-stage or NDA-stage candidates, and more than twenty early clinical- and preclinical-stage candidates that address critical therapeutic targets. Betta listed its A Shares on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2016 raising net proceeds of RMB657.35 million. In December 2020, Betta raised RMB995.4 million through a placing of 10.1 million A Shares. Betta is pre-marketing an H Share listing to raise $800 million, according to press reports. <div class="content-highlight">Despite efforts at diversification, Betta is highly dependent on a single product, icotinib, which was launched in 2011. The recent commercial launch of ensartinib will provide revenue diversification and a new growth engine. However, icotinib continues to face challenges and it will take some time for ensartinib to post meaningful market share gains (post-NRDL inclusion at the end of 2021). In combination with the weak underlying margin and cash generation, we are inclined to give this listing a pass.  </div>

Betta Pharmaceuticals (300558 CH) is a biopharma company in China focused on the development, manufacture and commercialization of innovative therapies. Betta’s drug pipeline consists of two marketed therapies, five late clinical-stage or NDA-stage candidates, and more than twenty early clinical- and preclinical-stage candidates that address critical therapeutic targets. Betta listed its A Shares on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2016 raising net proceeds of RMB657.35 million. In December 2020, Betta raised RMB995.4 million through a placing of 10.1 million A Shares. Betta is pre-marketing an H Share listing to raise $800 million, according to press reports. Despite efforts at diversification, Betta is highly dependent on a single product, icotinib, which was launched in 2011. The recent commercial launch of ensartinib will provide revenue diversification and a new growth engine. However, icotinib continues to face challenges and it will take some time for ensartinib to post meaningful market share gains (post-NRDL inclusion at the end of 2021). In combination with the weak underlying margin and cash generation, we are inclined to give this listing a pass.  

Betta Pharmaceuticals IPO Initiation: One Step Forward, One Step Back

China

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures and sells anti-infectives, anti-neoplastic agents, diabetes drugs, and other products. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group markets its products throughout China.

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Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK)

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Following an increase in the number of CCASS shares and free float, Alibaba's index shares will be increased. Passive HSI/ HSCEI/ HSTECH trackers...

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China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.18)

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Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692.HK) - Insights on Core Products, Pipeline, Catalysts and Key Risks

This article analyzed Hansoh Pharmaceutical in terms of core products, the pipeline, the key risks, the thoughts on valuation and the catalysts for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Betta Pharmaceuticals IPO Initiation: One Step Forward, One Step Back

Betta is pre-marketing an H Share listing to raise $800 million, according to press reports. Overall, we think that Betta faces several challenges...

Arun George

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