HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Driven by recovery of Casarte after lockdown removed and premiumisation of product and pricing, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> should see sustained healthy earnings growth in 2H22.</li>
<li>We expect room to improve gross margin sequentially as cost pressure subsides in 2H22. Meanwhile, overseas markets still present good expansion opportunities. </li>
<li>Premium valuations are justified by its brand strength, global presence and strong execution capability. Healthy 1H22 should clear market's concerns on impact of weak property market. </li>
</ul>


Driven by recovery of Casarte after lockdown removed and premiumisation of product and pricing, Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) should see sustained healthy earnings growth in 2H22.
We expect room to improve gross margin sequentially as cost pressure subsides in 2H22. Meanwhile, overseas markets still present good expansion opportunities. 
Premium valuations are justified by its brand strength, global presence and strong execution capability. Healthy 1H22 should clear market's concerns on impact of weak property market. 


Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): A Trusted Name that Delivers

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2Q22 is a tough quarter for China's consumer discretionary companies. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> has experienced improvement in recovery in May and Jun, but we see FILA stay challenging.</li>
<li>In its FY22 result, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bosideng-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6537:1" rel="noopener">Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)</a> demonstrated its resilience in gross margin despite higher input costs. More positive developments are brewing in 2H of this year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7196:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (600690 CH)</a> has its business rebounding after the lockdown and healthy performance in overseas market should partly mitigate the lockdown-induced weakness in 2Q22.</li>
</ul>


2Q22 is a tough quarter for China's consumer discretionary companies. Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) has experienced improvement in recovery in May and Jun, but we see FILA stay challenging.
In its FY22 result, Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK) demonstrated its resilience in gross margin despite higher input costs. More positive developments are brewing in 2H of this year.

Haier Smart Home (600690 CH) has its business rebounding after the lockdown and healthy performance in overseas market should partly mitigate the lockdown-induced weakness in 2Q22.


China Consumer Discretionary: Darkness Before Dawn

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel is on the way out. After 16 years she will resign as Chancellor later this year. Her likely successor, Mr. Laschet, has just been elected as CDU party leader.During Merkel's reign, her commitment to China was clear. She paid at least 12 official state visits to China to promote German interests. In hindsight, this led to debacles such as the promotion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wirecard-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21743:1" rel="noopener">Wirecard AG (WDI GR)</a> to Chinese authorities.Another <a href="http://smart-home.haier.com/en/gsgg/P020200604563919508265.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">interesting development was the 2018 announcement</a> between the Shanghai and German stock exchanges to list Chinese companies in Germany. They would be called "D Shares", D standing for Deutschland. The poster boy would be <a href="http://smart-home.haier.com/en/gsgg/P020200604563919508265.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Qingdao Haier</a>.Fast forward to 2021 and it is a late 2020 announcement by Haier that caught our attention. The company has announced in an official filing it will be aggressively buying D shares going forward.Why? After the recent Haier restructuring exercise, the D shares are now pari-passu with the H shares which are freely trading in HK. The D share experiment was clearly a flop and there is no logical reason for these D shares existing anymore. Outcome? Haier will buy 66 million EUR worth of D shares. It makes financial sense. Shareholders, in theory, should also be able to exchange D shares for H shares. Although, in practice, there is just one D share in the world and it has never been done before.Arbitrage Opportunity: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK) closed at 35.20 HKD</a>Haier Smart Home D shares were recently trading at +/-2.48 EURAs a shareholder, you have the same rights (including dividends) when you are a D shareholder as an H shareholder. If this is true, the disconnect makes no sense, and once arbitrage funds find out it will disappear. ADTV for D shares is above 10M USD/day. This trade can be put on in size.The fair value of at today's FX is 3.74 EUR, which equates to +/-50% upside. The trade has more upside if the HK list-co does well, but has no downside unless the HK listing collapses significantly.

Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel is on the way out. After 16 years she will resign as Chancellor later this year. Her likely successor, Mr. Laschet, has just been elected as CDU party leader.During Merkel's reign, her commitment to China was clear. She paid at least 12 official state visits to China to promote German interests. In hindsight, this led to debacles such as the promotion of Wirecard AG (WDI GR) to Chinese authorities.Another interesting development was the 2018 announcement between the Shanghai and German stock exchanges to list Chinese companies in Germany. They would be called "D Shares", D standing for Deutschland. The poster boy would be Qingdao Haier.Fast forward to 2021 and it is a late 2020 announcement by Haier that caught our attention. The company has announced in an official filing it will be aggressively buying D shares going forward.Why? After the recent Haier restructuring exercise, the D shares are now pari-passu with the H shares which are freely trading in HK. The D share experiment was clearly a flop and there is no logical reason for these D shares existing anymore. Outcome? Haier will buy 66 million EUR worth of D shares. It makes financial sense. Shareholders, in theory, should also be able to exchange D shares for H shares. Although, in practice, there is just one D share in the world and it has never been done before.Arbitrage Opportunity: Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK) closed at 35.20 HKDHaier Smart Home D shares were recently trading at +/-2.48 EURAs a shareholder, you have the same rights (including dividends) when you are a D shareholder as an H shareholder. If this is true, the disconnect makes no sense, and once arbitrage funds find out it will disappear. ADTV for D shares is above 10M USD/day. This trade can be put on in size.The fair value of at today's FX is 3.74 EUR, which equates to +/-50% upside. The trade has more upside if the HK list-co does well, but has no downside unless the HK listing collapses significantly.

Haier Smart Home: Forgotten D Shares = Equal to H Shares. Creates a Minimum 50% Return Opportunity

China

Haier Smart Home Co. Ltd. manufactures and distributes appliances. The Company produces air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, small household electrical appliances, and other related products. Haier Smart Home markets its products domestically and internationally.

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Haier Smart Home (690D GR)

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): A Trusted Name that Delivers

Healthy profit growth should sustain into 2H22 with upside from better margin as cost pressure subsides sequentially. Premium valuations are...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Consumer Discretionary: Darkness Before Dawn

The Covid-induced lockdowns have brought headwinds to China consumer discretionary names in 2Q22, but we are seeing a gradual recovery with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Haier Smart Home: Forgotten D Shares = Equal to H Shares. Creates a Minimum 50% Return Opportunity

German listed Haier Smart Home D shares have been forgotten by Mr Market and create an arbitrage opportunity of 50% as they should trade pari-passu...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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