'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> • </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/226/original/2019-06-13_16-47-07.png?1560412038" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90226"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTRODUCTION </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at<strong> +4</strong> &amp; <strong>-2</strong> and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.</p><p><strong>This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/196/original/2019-06-13_11-15-27.png?1560392157" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90196"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STATISTICS</strong> - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-june-relative-price-scores-market-sectors-peer-groups-more-of-the-same" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30323">🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same</a>, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. </p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/202/original/2019-06-13_13-06-49.png?1560398835" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90202"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RPS 'TOPS'</strong> - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1">Alfresa (2784 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kikkoman-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1">Kikkoman (2801 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eiken-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12675:1">Eiken Chemical (4549 JP)</a>.  </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/201/original/2019-06-13_13-04-38.png?1560398780" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90201"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/203/original/2019-06-13_13-08-46.png?1560398945" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90203"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/204/original/2019-06-13_13-09-37.png?1560399049" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90204"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/205/original/2019-06-13_13-12-01.png?1560399142" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90205"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/316/original/2019-06-15_19-45-47.png?1560595558" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90316"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><p><strong>RPS 'BOTTOMS'</strong> - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k-o-energy-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17701:1">K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP)</a>.</p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/207/original/2019-06-13_13-14-03.png?1560399270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90207"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</p></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • Source: Japan AnalyticsINTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. Goldwin (8111 JP) has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, 🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •Source: Japan AnalyticsRPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been Descente (8114 JP), Alfresa (2784 JP), FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP), Kikkoman (2801 JP), Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP), and Eiken Chemical (4549 JP).  
Source: Japan Analytics
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP).
Source: Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-department-stores-2018-some-growth-again-and-even-real-profits-part-i" target="_blank">Part I</a> of our review of Japanese department stores, which provided an overview of the sector by region, product category, the top 30 firms and the top 50 stores, we conclude with a review of key trends in the sector and the outlook for the next five years. We expect:</p>
<ul class="">
<li>Further contraction of the sector overall as more stores are closed or converted to shopping buildings (vertical shopping centres).</li>
<li>Such contraction will benefit the remaining stores because the upscale positioning will be underpinned by more investment in fewer stores, and the closed stores are mostly drab and more like GMS stores than upscale emporiums.</li>
<li>A few leading firms will diversify successfully away from a dependence on just department stores.</li>
<li>Continued growth in tourism and the continued growth in the number of wealthy Japanese will underpin stability for the better chains and stores.</li>
<li>A new emphasis on being retailers, rather than just property managers as they were in the past, will lead to higher growth, particularly in terms of profits. These profits will come from higher sales densities and the addition of more high margin merchandise and services.</li>
<li>The likely winners will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8947" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/370" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13058" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13058:1">Hankyu Hanshin (9042 JP)</a> which is part of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17562" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17562:1">H2O Retailing (8242 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18871" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1">Isetan Mitsukoshi's (3099 JP)</a> more conservative new management, and ongoing closures, and Seven &amp; I's concerted paring down of the Sogo Seibu chain suggest these two firms will underperform.</li>
</ul>

Following Part I of our review of Japanese department stores, which provided an overview of the sector by region, product category, the top 30 firms and the top 50 stores, we conclude with a review of key trends in the sector and the outlook for the next five years. We expect:

Further contraction of the sector overall as more stores are closed or converted to shopping buildings (vertical shopping centres).
Such contraction will benefit the remaining stores because the upscale positioning will be underpinned by more investment in fewer stores, and the closed stores are mostly drab and more like GMS stores than upscale emporiums.
A few leading firms will diversify successfully away from a dependence on just department stores.
Continued growth in tourism and the continued growth in the number of wealthy Japanese will underpin stability for the better chains and stores.
A new emphasis on being retailers, rather than just property managers as they were in the past, will lead to higher growth, particularly in terms of profits. These profits will come from higher sales densities and the addition of more high margin merchandise and services.
The likely winners will be J Front Retailing (3086 JP), Takashimaya (8233 JP) and Hankyu Hanshin (9042 JP) which is part of H2O Retailing (8242 JP). Isetan Mitsukoshi's (3099 JP) more conservative new management, and ongoing closures, and Seven &amp; I's concerted paring down of the Sogo Seibu chain suggest these two firms will underperform.


Japan Department Stores 2018: Some Growth Again and Even Real Profits – Part II

<ul class="">
<li>Department stores bounced back last year, and in some regions had a party, with sales at stores in Osaka alone up 6.6%.</li>
<li>Overall, of course, sales for the sector continued to contract due to closures and further conversion of space to tenancies, but this is making the format more efficient.</li>
<li>Further efficiency is coming from real gains in retail know-how and marketing, with some of the better chains emerging as genuine retailers for the first time in decades, shedding their former role as real estate managers.</li>
<li>As a result, the top 50 stores, which are the core target for most international brands of apparel, accessories, food and home products, are distancing themselves from the rest both in terms of positioning and performance.</li>
<li>Most observers view the Japanese department store sector negatively, with little to offer investors. However the net result of recent improvements in stores, diversification, and the boom in sales to tourists is that some department store operators, notably <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8947" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/370" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> are emerging as more diversified, profitable businesses, with the potential to grow once again.</li>
</ul>
<p>The following is a long read but provides a comprehensive summary of the trends in the Japanese department store sector, which firms will come out ahead, and which are headed for trouble.</p>


Department stores bounced back last year, and in some regions had a party, with sales at stores in Osaka alone up 6.6%.
Overall, of course, sales for the sector continued to contract due to closures and further conversion of space to tenancies, but this is making the format more efficient.
Further efficiency is coming from real gains in retail know-how and marketing, with some of the better chains emerging as genuine retailers for the first time in decades, shedding their former role as real estate managers.
As a result, the top 50 stores, which are the core target for most international brands of apparel, accessories, food and home products, are distancing themselves from the rest both in terms of positioning and performance.
Most observers view the Japanese department store sector negatively, with little to offer investors. However the net result of recent improvements in stores, diversification, and the boom in sales to tourists is that some department store operators, notably J Front Retailing (3086 JP) and Takashimaya (8233 JP) are emerging as more diversified, profitable businesses, with the potential to grow once again.

The following is a long read but provides a comprehensive summary of the trends in the Japanese department store sector, which firms will come out ahead, and which are headed for trouble.

Japan Department Stores 2018: Some Growth Again and Even Real Profits – Part I

<p>JapanConsuming’s retail ranking for FY2017 has now been compiled, and the results show that the retail industry enjoyed another extremely good year in FY2017.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p>There are now 79 companies with sales of ¥250 billion or more, including franchise operators and holding companies, and overall sales grew by 4.5%, way ahead of the 1.9% growth in retail sales overall, showing how much the bigger businesses are outperforming the rest of the sector, and how quickly they are eating up market share.</p>
<p>What follows is a comprehensive review of the major developments, focusing on the two key trends of e-commerce and greater group concentration, with an analysis of each of the major format sectors in the ranking.</p>
<p>It’s a long read but provides a complete and concise summary of both winners and losers, and the key trends in the retail sector at the moment.</p>

JapanConsuming’s retail ranking for FY2017 has now been compiled, and the results show that the retail industry enjoyed another extremely good year in FY2017. 
There are now 79 companies with sales of ¥250 billion or more, including franchise operators and holding companies, and overall sales grew by 4.5%, way ahead of the 1.9% growth in retail sales overall, showing how much the bigger businesses are outperforming the rest of the sector, and how quickly they are eating up market share.
What follows is a comprehensive review of the major developments, focusing on the two key trends of e-commerce and greater group concentration, with an analysis of each of the major format sectors in the ranking.
It’s a long read but provides a complete and concise summary of both winners and losers, and the key trends in the retail sector at the moment.

Retail Ranking FY2017-18: Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Chacko Jacob

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>As far as the history of Japanese department stores goes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/370" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> is one of the newer stores in the country despite being founded nearly 190 years ago. Even in terms of market cap, the company is only the fourth largest among domestic department stores. However, the company is now plotting a new course to increase sales and traffic. In this report, we will analyse the company’s medium and long-term plans to grow revenue while also weighing its performance against that of industry peers. </p>

As far as the history of Japanese department stores goes, Takashimaya (8233 JP) is one of the newer stores in the country despite being founded nearly 190 years ago. Even in terms of market cap, the company is only the fourth largest among domestic department stores. However, the company is now plotting a new course to increase sales and traffic. In this report, we will analyse the company’s medium and long-term plans to grow revenue while also weighing its performance against that of industry peers. 

Takashimaya(8233): ASEAN Projects and Inbound Sales Offer Positive Long-Term Growth Outlook

Japan

H2O RETAILING CORPORATION founded in Osaka in 1929, operates railway terminal department stores.  The Company's main store is located at Hankyu terminal in Umeda (Osaka) and sells clothing, foods, sundry goods, furniture, and household utensils.  H2O Retailing also operates restaurants and coffee shops.

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H2O Retailing (8242 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Department Stores 2018: Some Growth Again and Even Real Profits – Part II

Following Part I of our review of Japanese department stores, which provided an overview of the sector by region, product category, the top 30...

Michael Causton

Japan Department Stores 2018: Some Growth Again and Even Real Profits – Part I

Department stores bounced back last year, and in some regions had a party, with sales at stores in Osaka alone up 6.6%. Overall, of course, sales...

Michael Causton

Retail Ranking FY2017-18: Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing

JapanConsuming’s retail ranking for FY2017 has now been compiled, and the results show that the retail industry enjoyed another extremely good year...

Michael Causton

Takashimaya(8233): ASEAN Projects and Inbound Sales Offer Positive Long-Term Growth Outlook

As far as the history of Japanese department stores goes, Takashimaya (8233 JP) is one of the newer stores in the country despite being founded...

Chacko Jacob

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