'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES •
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/110/839/original/2019-12-17_10-16-56.png?1576545466" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="110839"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
COMPANY RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. 
</div><div><div>Following on from our previous Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-december-sector-peer-group-relative-price-scores-from-defensives-to-cylicals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35266" rel="noopener">December Sector &amp; Peer Group Relative Price Scores - From Defensives to Cylicals</a> which covered Sectors and Peer Groups, in the DETAIL section below, we update our list of Overbought and Oversold large-cap companies (market capitalisation over ¥100b) with the current Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5), Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4.5) and Oversold (RPS &lt;-2) companies, as well as the largest positive and negative 3-month Changes in RPS adding some stock-specific comments in each category.</div></div>


• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES •
Source: Japan Analytics
COMPANY RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. 
Following on from our previous Insight December Sector &amp; Peer Group Relative Price Scores - From Defensives to Cylicals which covered Sectors and Peer Groups, in the DETAIL section below, we update our list of Overbought and Oversold large-cap companies (market capitalisation over ¥100b) with the current Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5), Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4.5) and Oversold (RPS &lt;-2) companies, as well as the largest positive and negative 3-month Changes in RPS adding some stock-specific comments in each category.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • December Company Relative Price Scores - Opportunities in the Outliers

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The department store sector witnessed a small drop in sales in FY2018 but, considering the large number of closures and conversions, this was a solid result and reflective of the continued support for the format from wealthy Japanese and inbound tourists.
However, only cosmetics and accessories floors performed well while the important apparel category continued to decline sharply. Food floors also suffered a set back last year.
However, the overall data belies a much more positive outlook for the leading stores and chains.
After 20 years of dithering, management has come to a consensus that taking control of sales floors – and becoming real retailers again – is good for growth and especially the bottom line. Department stores will never deliver market leading growth but they could offer investors an opportunity if OP rises significantly. The building blocks are at least being put in place that could make this happen.
As well as this review of the sector, we have also posted an update on the top four department store firms and their medium-term strategies (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hell-will-freeze-over-and-some-japanese-department-stores-will-increase-opm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hell Will Freeze over and (Some) Japanese Department Stores Will Increase OPM</a>).

The department store sector witnessed a small drop in sales in FY2018 but, considering the large number of closures and conversions, this was a solid result and reflective of the continued support for the format from wealthy Japanese and inbound tourists.
However, only cosmetics and accessories floors performed well while the important apparel category continued to decline sharply. Food floors also suffered a set back last year.
However, the overall data belies a much more positive outlook for the leading stores and chains.
After 20 years of dithering, management has come to a consensus that taking control of sales floors – and becoming real retailers again – is good for growth and especially the bottom line. Department stores will never deliver market leading growth but they could offer investors an opportunity if OP rises significantly. The building blocks are at least being put in place that could make this happen.
As well as this review of the sector, we have also posted an update on the top four department store firms and their medium-term strategies (Hell Will Freeze over and (Some) Japanese Department Stores Will Increase OPM).

Japanese Department Stores 2018-19: Taking New Risks Creates Opportunity

Event-Driven

After several months of cross-company negotiations around tie-ups, late in August <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP)</a> confirmed they were finally entering discussions to merge operations.These may take a while but, while Cocokara's other suitor, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sugi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9255:1" rel="noopener">Sugi Holdings (7649 JP)</a>, looked a better bet culturally, Matsumotokiyoshi and Cocokara have plenty to discuss given the potential areas for synergy and collaboration.Much has already been said about opportunities post-merger, particularly in private brands, but it is how these private brands could power a significant increase in market share at the expense of convenience stores – and even in collaboration with GMS and supermarket retailers – that is perhaps most alluring.In addition, Japan's health services market is in robust health precisely because so many Japanese aren't – because they are ageing. Cocokara has already built a substantial health services business which Matsukiyo could help grow.The drugstore sector is already one of the most active in terms of M&amp;A, but this deal will be the largest so far and will cause a major disruption for competitors and food, cosmetics and toiletries distribution.

After several months of cross-company negotiations around tie-ups, late in August Cocokara Fine (3098 JP and Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP) confirmed they were finally entering discussions to merge operations.These may take a while but, while Cocokara's other suitor, Sugi Holdings (7649 JP), looked a better bet culturally, Matsumotokiyoshi and Cocokara have plenty to discuss given the potential areas for synergy and collaboration.Much has already been said about opportunities post-merger, particularly in private brands, but it is how these private brands could power a significant increase in market share at the expense of convenience stores – and even in collaboration with GMS and supermarket retailers – that is perhaps most alluring.In addition, Japan's health services market is in robust health precisely because so many Japanese aren't – because they are ageing. Cocokara has already built a substantial health services business which Matsukiyo could help grow.The drugstore sector is already one of the most active in terms of M&amp;A, but this deal will be the largest so far and will cause a major disruption for competitors and food, cosmetics and toiletries distribution.

Cocokara and Matsukiyo: Potential Competition for Supermarkets and Convenience Stores

Equity Bottom-Up

Seven &amp; I sent in a team of senior executives to sort out Sogo Seibu three years ago resulting in recommendations that included handing off the Kansai stores and converting others to shopping centres.The resulting restructuring is in progress, with more stores closed than any other department store chain.  Next month will also see the formal renaming of Sogo Kobe and Seibu Takatsuki as Hankyu stores. The move gives <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h2o-retailing-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17562:1" rel="noopener">H2O Retailing (8242 JP),</a> which owns the department stores of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13058:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (9042 JP)</a> the opportunity to further consolidate its position as the preeminent retailer in the Kansai region.Seven &amp; I meanwhile will now focus on extracting more sales and profit from some of the remaining 15 stores but is likely to want to convert or close more stores in the near future. Already, it has decided to convert its large Seibu Tokorozawa store into a shopping centre later this year. The net result will be a much smaller chain of department stores that Seven &amp; I could well be packaging up to sell to a competitor or offload through an MBO. This could lead to an improvement in OPM.

Seven &amp; I sent in a team of senior executives to sort out Sogo Seibu three years ago resulting in recommendations that included handing off the Kansai stores and converting others to shopping centres.The resulting restructuring is in progress, with more stores closed than any other department store chain.  Next month will also see the formal renaming of Sogo Kobe and Seibu Takatsuki as Hankyu stores. The move gives H2O Retailing (8242 JP), which owns the department stores of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (9042 JP) the opportunity to further consolidate its position as the preeminent retailer in the Kansai region.Seven &amp; I meanwhile will now focus on extracting more sales and profit from some of the remaining 15 stores but is likely to want to convert or close more stores in the near future. Already, it has decided to convert its large Seibu Tokorozawa store into a shopping centre later this year. The net result will be a much smaller chain of department stores that Seven &amp; I could well be packaging up to sell to a competitor or offload through an MBO. This could lead to an improvement in OPM.

Seven & I's Sogo Seibu Loses Kansai Branches, Converting More Stores to SCs

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners and losers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-retail-review-and-ranking-2018-19-profit-growth-slowing-as-competition-increases" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In an accompanying Insight, we provide an overview of retail performance for the entire sector in 2018-19 by sales, profits and margins.</a>

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners and losers. In an accompanying Insight, we provide an overview of retail performance for the entire sector in 2018-19 by sales, profits and margins.

Japan Retail Highlights 2018-19: Sector by Sector and Winners in Each Sector

Japan

H2O RETAILING CORPORATION founded in Osaka in 1929, operates railway terminal department stores.  The Company's main store is located at Hankyu terminal in Umeda (Osaka) and sells clothing, foods, sundry goods, furniture, and household utensils.  H2O Retailing also operates restaurants and coffee shops.

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H2O Retailing (8242 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • December Company Relative Price Scores - Opportunities in the Outliers

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES • COMPANY RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance...

Campbell Gunn

Japanese Department Stores 2018-19: Taking New Risks Creates Opportunity

The department store sector witnessed a small drop in sales in FY2018 but, considering the large number of closures and conversions, this was a...

Michael Causton

Cocokara and Matsukiyo: Potential Competition for Supermarkets and Convenience Stores

After several months of cross-company negotiations around tie-ups, late in August Cocokara Fine (3098 JP and Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP)...

Michael Causton

Seven & I's Sogo Seibu Loses Kansai Branches, Converting More Stores to SCs

Seven & I sent in a team of senior executives to sort out Sogo Seibu three years ago resulting in recommendations that included handing off the...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Highlights 2018-19: Sector by Sector and Winners in Each Sector

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners...

Michael Causton

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