ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> just released 1Q2024 results, which reflected the softer auto and heavy equipment markets, although buoyed by better earnings for its finance arm, </li>
<li>The company's headline net profit was down -14% YoY but stripping out value adjustments was only down -5% YoY, with management optimistic over the longer term. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra</a> continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations attractive on 6.6x FY2024E PER and a 7.2% dividend yield. </li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ) just released 1Q2024 results, which reflected the softer auto and heavy equipment markets, although buoyed by better earnings for its finance arm, 
The company's headline net profit was down -14% YoY but stripping out value adjustments was only down -5% YoY, with management optimistic over the longer term. 

Astra continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations attractive on 6.6x FY2024E PER and a 7.2% dividend yield. 


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Striking a Balance with Finance

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elite-commercial-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28807:1" rel="noopener">Elite Commercial REIT (ELITE SP)</a> and OceanaGold IPO in the Philippines. </li>
<li>There were also macro insights on Indonesia and Singapore plus a sector insight on Thai banks and an index rebalancing from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> on the LQ45 in Indonesia. </li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ),Elite Commercial REIT (ELITE SP) and OceanaGold IPO in the Philippines. 
There were also macro insights on Indonesia and Singapore plus a sector insight on Thai banks and an index rebalancing from Brian Freitas on the LQ45 in Indonesia. 
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - BCA Leads, BFIN Is Back, and Thai Banks

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> booked a solid set of 1Q2024 numbers with improved QoQ bookings, although with some concerns over challenging market conditions slowing the recovery.</li>
<li>The NPF ratio saw an ongoing improvement, although the cost of capital increased due to higher write-offs from last year's bookings. Revenue declined due to a shift to lower-risk products. </li>
<li>The outlook for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFIN</a> in 2H2024 looks more positive, with the company shifting back to higher-return products and with lower expected credit costs. Valuations are appealing on 1.5x PBV.</li>
</ul>



BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) booked a solid set of 1Q2024 numbers with improved QoQ bookings, although with some concerns over challenging market conditions slowing the recovery.
The NPF ratio saw an ongoing improvement, although the cost of capital increased due to higher write-offs from last year's bookings. Revenue declined due to a shift to lower-risk products. 
The outlook for BFIN in 2H2024 looks more positive, with the company shifting back to higher-return products and with lower expected credit costs. Valuations are appealing on 1.5x PBV.


BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Slower Recovery in Process

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> is large on promise but low on delivery, with sales in FY2023 coming in well below expectations, and the vast majority being to related companies. </li>
<li>The company is building huge capacity in Vietnam, India, and Indonesia in the region, and in the US, where sales have been slow but where capex is required.</li>
<li>Vingroup has set up ride-hailing company GSM, using Vinfast vehicles for its fleet, making up 50% of its sales in 2023, leaving question marks over the sustainability of its model.</li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US) is large on promise but low on delivery, with sales in FY2023 coming in well below expectations, and the vast majority being to related companies. 
The company is building huge capacity in Vietnam, India, and Indonesia in the region, and in the US, where sales have been slow but where capex is required.
Vingroup has set up ride-hailing company GSM, using Vinfast vehicles for its fleet, making up 50% of its sales in 2023, leaving question marks over the sustainability of its model.


Vinfast (VFS US) - An EV Accident Waiting to Happen?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ)</a> booked a slightly weaker finish to the year than expected with a slowdown in revenue growth in 4Q2023 and a miss on adjusted EBITDA breakeven.</li>
<li>The key reason was a thinning out of non-performing specialty businesses which impacted short-term revenues but will improve revenues and adjusted EBITDA. as the focus shifts to higher take-rate businesses.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak.com PT Tbk (BUKA IJ)</a> is guiding for +15-20% revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024 with execution on this being paramount. Valuations remain attractive.</li>
</ul>



Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ) booked a slightly weaker finish to the year than expected with a slowdown in revenue growth in 4Q2023 and a miss on adjusted EBITDA breakeven.
The key reason was a thinning out of non-performing specialty businesses which impacted short-term revenues but will improve revenues and adjusted EBITDA. as the focus shifts to higher take-rate businesses.

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk (BUKA IJ) is guiding for +15-20% revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024 with execution on this being paramount. Valuations remain attractive.


Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ) - On the Cusp of Breakeven

Indonesia

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

Astra International (ASII IJ) - Striking a Balance with Finance

Astra continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - BCA Leads, BFIN Is Back, and Thai Banks

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Slower Recovery in Process

The outlook for BFIN in 2H2024 looks more positive, with the company shifting back to higher-return products and with lower expected credit costs....

Angus Mackintosh

Vinfast (VFS US) - An EV Accident Waiting to Happen?

Vinfast is big on promise but low on delivery, with sales in FY2023 below expectations, and the majority being to related companies. There are...

Angus Mackintosh

Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ) - On the Cusp of Breakeven

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk (BUKA IJ) is guiding for +15-20% revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024 with execution being on being paramount....

Angus Mackintosh

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