EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In May we noted that Saudi was likely to pursue a production maximisation policy for 6 months, with a freeze or cuts likely as we head into winter.This appears to have been prescient as OPEC yesterday announced that OPEC-14 production levels would be capped at 32.5-33mbpd, a slight decrease over the levels achieved over summer and back at Doha talks levels.However, detail is lacking on the proposal and there is strong reason to doubt potential enforceability of any agreement, with oil jumping but still being flat month on month as a result.This piece explores some of these issues and potential market action.

In May we noted that Saudi was likely to pursue a production maximisation policy for 6 months, with a freeze or cuts likely as we head into winter.This appears to have been prescient as OPEC yesterday announced that OPEC-14 production levels would be capped at 32.5-33mbpd, a slight decrease over the levels achieved over summer and back at Doha talks levels.However, detail is lacking on the proposal and there is strong reason to doubt potential enforceability of any agreement, with oil jumping but still being flat month on month as a result.This piece explores some of these issues and potential market action.

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Crude markets have tightened a good deal in recent months, as strong demand growth and supply issues have pulled forward the industry recovery by about a year, relative to our previous outlook. Fundamentals after 2017 are looking particularly bullish for prices, and an oil price rally in 2018 is looking more and more likely (we've raised our 2018 West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, forecast to $65 per barrel).Even so, the strength of U.S. shale is lurking beneath the surface: Our analysis shows that the recent uptick in rigs and falling shale decline rates together are enough to stabilize U.S. crude production within six months. Remarkably, if activity isn't scaled back, U.S. production will begin growing in 2017 (albeit barely). This underscores the strength of U.S. tight oil: Should a price rally ensue, it is far too strong to not overheat and eventually snuff out any future oil price rally. We remain bearish on oil prices longer term, and we reiterate our midcycle oil price outlook of $55 WTI ($60 Brent).Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA

Crude markets have tightened a good deal in recent months, as strong demand growth and supply issues have pulled forward the industry recovery by about a year, relative to our previous outlook. Fundamentals after 2017 are looking particularly bullish for prices, and an oil price rally in 2018 is looking more and more likely (we've raised our 2018 West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, forecast to $65 per barrel).Even so, the strength of U.S. shale is lurking beneath the surface: Our analysis shows that the recent uptick in rigs and falling shale decline rates together are enough to stabilize U.S. crude production within six months. Remarkably, if activity isn't scaled back, U.S. production will begin growing in 2017 (albeit barely). This underscores the strength of U.S. tight oil: Should a price rally ensue, it is far too strong to not overheat and eventually snuff out any future oil price rally. We remain bearish on oil prices longer term, and we reiterate our midcycle oil price outlook of $55 WTI ($60 Brent).Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA

Oil Markets: Fundamentals Improving, but U.S. Shale Still Looms

Equity Analyst, TMT & Energy Specialist

HL Tan

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production freeze, in the upcoming informal OPEC meet in Algeria from 26-28 September 2016. We are skeptical on execution, deal or no deal. Nevertheless, any headline news on supply cuts could result in near term oil volatility or fund re-positioning.Who is going to cut?<ul><li>
Collective production quota is difficult to enforce– Despite an explicit OPEC collective…</li></ul>

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production freeze, in the upcoming informal OPEC meet in Algeria from 26-28 September 2016. We are skeptical on execution, deal or no deal. Nevertheless, any headline news on supply cuts could result in near term oil volatility or fund re-positioning.Who is going to cut?
Collective production quota is difficult to enforce– Despite an explicit OPEC collective…

Portugal

Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. is an integrated energy company with diversified activities Worldwide. The Company is focused in the prolific South Atlantic area, including Brazil's pre-salt Santos basin and the Angolan offshore, and in the world class Rovuma basin in Mozambique. Downstream activities are centred in Iberia and comprise the Refining & Marketing and the Gas & Power businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Galp Energia Sgps Sa (GALP PL)

Can OPEC Cut Production

In May we noted that Saudi was likely to pursue a production maximisation policy for 6 months, with a freeze or cuts likely as we head into...

Emad Mostaque

Oil Markets: Fundamentals Improving, but U.S. Shale Still Looms

Crude markets have tightened a good deal in recent months, as strong demand growth and supply issues have pulled forward the industry recovery by...

Morningstar, Inc.

Oil Price - OPEC Deal or No Deal?

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production...

HL Tan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)