External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Steel Q1FY24 Preview: For steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect margins to contract QoQ due to lower sales volume and elevated input coking coal consumption costs, offsetting higher realisations.</li><li>On a YoY basis, too, margins are expected to contract despite higher volumes YoY (on a low base) as HRC prices are now down by 15% YoY from the near peak of the last year.</li><li>We expect revenues to decline QoQ on account of lower sales which will offset the slightly higher realisations on a QoQ basis. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Steel Q1FY24 Preview: For steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect margins to contract QoQ due to lower sales volume and elevated input coking coal consumption costs, offsetting higher realisations.On a YoY basis, too, margins are expected to contract despite higher volumes YoY (on a low base) as HRC prices are now down by 15% YoY from the near peak of the last year.We expect revenues to decline QoQ on account of lower sales which will offset the slightly higher realisations on a QoQ basis. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CIL posted a mixed set of numbers with revenue in line with our estimates while EBITDA/PAT reported a slight miss (6%/3%) from our estimates.</li><li>Revenue stood largely in line, up 17%/8% YoY/QoQ, led by higher sales offtake and ASPs (up 13%/2% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>EBITDA (down 24%/34% YoY/QoQ) missed our estimates by 6%, mainly on account of the higher- than-expected employee, contractual, and other expenses, which are partially offset by lower-than- expected RM (coal stock build-up) and stripping activity costs.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

CIL posted a mixed set of numbers with revenue in line with our estimates while EBITDA/PAT reported a slight miss (6%/3%) from our estimates.Revenue stood largely in line, up 17%/8% YoY/QoQ, led by higher sales offtake and ASPs (up 13%/2% YoY/QoQ).EBITDA (down 24%/34% YoY/QoQ) missed our estimates by 6%, mainly on account of the higher- than-expected employee, contractual, and other expenses, which are partially offset by lower-than- expected RM (coal stock build-up) and stripping activity costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal India - Healthy Traction in Volumes Bodes Well

<ul><li>Tata Steel reported its provisional sales volumes for Q4FY23.</li><li>Its Indian operations sales stood at 5.15MT, up marginally by 0.5% YoY and a robust 9% QoQ.</li><li>Tata Steel Europe’s sales volume declined to 2.13 MT, down 11% YoY, but recovered by 7% QoQ, indicating an improving demand environment.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Tata Steel reported its provisional sales volumes for Q4FY23.Its Indian operations sales stood at 5.15MT, up marginally by 0.5% YoY and a robust 9% QoQ.Tata Steel Europe’s sales volume declined to 2.13 MT, down 11% YoY, but recovered by 7% QoQ, indicating an improving demand environment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>E-auction premium on a declining trend: e-auction premium stood at 241% in Q3FY23 over FSA prices (down from 329% in Q2FY23) still at elevated level benefitting Coal India.</li><li>However, Dec’22 monthly e-auction premium has declined to 177% (241% in Nov’22).</li><li>With falling international coal prices we factor in lower e-auction prices in FY24E at Rs 2,575/t (vs. Rs 5,046/t in Q3FY23).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

E-auction premium on a declining trend: e-auction premium stood at 241% in Q3FY23 over FSA prices (down from 329% in Q2FY23) still at elevated level benefitting Coal India.However, Dec’22 monthly e-auction premium has declined to 177% (241% in Nov’22).With falling international coal prices we factor in lower e-auction prices in FY24E at Rs 2,575/t (vs. Rs 5,046/t in Q3FY23).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal India - Decent Q3, E-Auction Premiums Coming off the Peak

<ul><li>We expect Tata steel to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (ex-Mumbai prices down 25%/5% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>Tata Steel’s consolidated EBITDA is expected to fall by 66%/10% YoY/QoQ led by lower sales realisations and higher energy costs in Europe.</li><li>SAIL’s revenue is expected to increase by 2% YoY on the lower base of the last year’s sales volume, partly offset by fall in sales realisations YoY.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect Tata steel to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (ex-Mumbai prices down 25%/5% YoY/QoQ).Tata Steel’s consolidated EBITDA is expected to fall by 66%/10% YoY/QoQ led by lower sales realisations and higher energy costs in Europe.SAIL’s revenue is expected to increase by 2% YoY on the lower base of the last year’s sales volume, partly offset by fall in sales realisations YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metals and Mining  - Q3FY23 Earnings Preview

India

Coal India Limited produces and markets coal and coal products, as well as provides related consulting services.

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Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)

Metals - Q1FY24 Earnings Preview

On a YoY basis, too, margins are expected to contract despite higher volumes YoY (on a low base) as HRC prices are now down by 15% YoY from the...

Axis Direct

Coal India - Healthy Traction in Volumes Bodes Well

CIL posted a mixed set of numbers with revenue in line with our estimates while EBITDA/PAT reported a slight miss (6%/3%) from our estimates.

Axis Direct

Metals - Q4FY23 Earnings Preview

Tata Steel Europe’s sales volume declined to 2.13 MT, down 11% YoY, but recovered by 7% QoQ, indicating an improving demand environment.

Axis Direct

Coal India - Decent Q3, E-Auction Premiums Coming off the Peak

E-auction premium on a declining trend: e-auction premium stood at 241% in Q3FY23 over FSA prices (down from 329% in Q2FY23) still at elevated...

Axis Direct

Metals and Mining - Q3FY23 Earnings Preview

We expect Tata steel to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (ex-Mumbai prices down 25%...

Axis Direct

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