HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Communications Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> should see more valuation upside as it narrows the discount to book through more asset disposal, spin-off, restructuring and securitisation.</li>
<li>Healthy 1Q23 earnings demonstrated underlying business strength. We expect new contract growth to accelerate in the rest of this year. Backlog estimated to cover 4.7x FY23F revenue.</li>
<li>Gross margin has stabilised in 1Q23 when compared with 1Q in previous years. Contribution from concessions will improve as traffic recovers and projects get mature. </li>
</ul>



China Communications Construction (1800 HK) should see more valuation upside as it narrows the discount to book through more asset disposal, spin-off, restructuring and securitisation.
Healthy 1Q23 earnings demonstrated underlying business strength. We expect new contract growth to accelerate in the rest of this year. Backlog estimated to cover 4.7x FY23F revenue.
Gross margin has stabilised in 1Q23 when compared with 1Q in previous years. Contribution from concessions will improve as traffic recovers and projects get mature. 


China Comm Const (1800 HK): Bullish Outlook Reaffirmed

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Beijing Kingsoft Office Softwa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 2 trading days left in the review period, we see 7 potential adds/5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 5.58% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and have underperformed over the last week.</li>
</ul>


With 2 trading days left in the review period, we see 7 potential adds/5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.
We estimate one-way turnover of 5.58% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and have underperformed over the last week.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes Coming Up in June

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 110.7% as of Apr 21st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.8ppt week on week, led by communication services, real estate, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Postal Savings Bank, China Rail, CRRC, China Coal, GWM, Everbright Sec, CSC Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 110.7% as of Apr 21st.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.8ppt week on week, led by communication services, real estate, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Postal Savings Bank, China Rail, CRRC, China Coal, GWM, Everbright Sec, CSC Financial.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 21st): Postal Savings Bank, China Rail, CRRC, China Coal, GWM

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 14th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$770.1 million, led by materials, industrials, utilities sectors, and offset by financials, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuxi Apptec.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 14th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$770.1 million, led by materials, industrials, utilities sectors, and offset by financials, consumer staples.
We highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuxi Apptec.


Northbound Flows (Apr 14th): Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuxi Apptec

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 112.5% as of Apr 14th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -4.9ppt week on week, led by consumer discretionary, health care, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Remegen, CREC, Yankuang Energy, CRRC, GWM, CICC.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 112.5% as of Apr 14th.
The average A-H premium changed by -4.9ppt week on week, led by consumer discretionary, health care, financials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Remegen, CREC, Yankuang Energy, CRRC, GWM, CICC.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 14th): Remegen, CREC, Yankuang Energy, CRRC, GWM, CICC

China

China Railway Group Limited offers transportation facility construction services. The Company builds railways, roads, tunnels, and bridges. China Railway Group also conducts engineering survey, equipment manufacturing, real estate development, and investment businesses.

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China Railway Group (601390 CH)

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Bullish Outlook Reaffirmed

Despite a 43.2% YTD surge in share price, there are still significant upside for CCCC. It will escalate value-releasing strategies while secured...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes Coming Up in June

There will be 5 changes in June. Estimated 1-way turnover is 5.58% leading to a 1-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. The adds have outperformed the deletes...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 21st): Postal Savings Bank, China Rail, CRRC, China Coal, GWM

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Postal Savings Bank, China Rail, CRRC, China Coal, GWM,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Apr 14th): Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuxi Apptec

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuxi Apptec.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 14th): Remegen, CREC, Yankuang Energy, CRRC, GWM, CICC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Remegen, CREC, Yankuang Energy, CRRC, GWM, CICC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)