China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We cut our revenue estimations for 2H23, mainly due to increased uncertainty surrounding the launch of "Uma Musume." </li>
<li>We also lower our estimations for live streaming due to concerns about macro factors. We slightly raise our estimations for BILI's advertising business...</li>
<li>...as we anticipate that it will benefit from gaming and e-commerce. Our rev./non-GAAP net income are 1.0% and (6.4%) vs cons in 2Q23. Cut TP to $12.3, maintaining "Sell" rating.</li>
</ul>


We cut our revenue estimations for 2H23, mainly due to increased uncertainty surrounding the launch of "Uma Musume." 
We also lower our estimations for live streaming due to concerns about macro factors. We slightly raise our estimations for BILI's advertising business...
...as we anticipate that it will benefit from gaming and e-commerce. Our rev./non-GAAP net income are 1.0% and (6.4%) vs cons in 2Q23. Cut TP to $12.3, maintaining "Sell" rating.


[Bilibili (BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) TP Change]: The Launch Of "Uma Musume" May Face More Delay

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for PetroChina, China Mobile, Xpeng, Bilibili, Kuaishou, CCB, ICBC, BYD, HSBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows for PetroChina, China Mobile, Xpeng, Bilibili, Kuaishou, CCB, ICBC, BYD, HSBC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $366m Outflows in June

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 16th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the inflows to be USD 1.5bn and highlight flows for CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 16th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the inflows to be USD 1.5bn and highlight flows for CCB.


Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>BILI’s revenue grew by zero YoY in 1Q22, but operating losses shrank significantly.</li>
<li>The company reduced the subsidies to video uploaders, so that uploaders have been leaving the app.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 13% for yearend 2023. Downgrade to Hold.</li>
</ul>


BILI’s revenue grew by zero YoY in 1Q22, but operating losses shrank significantly.
The company reduced the subsidies to video uploaders, so that uploaders have been leaving the app.
We believe the stock has an upside of 13% for yearend 2023. Downgrade to Hold.


Blibili (9626 HK): 1Q23, Consequence of Subsidy Cut, Downgrade to Hold

<ul>
<li>China just announced game approval for May batch. The number of games approved is in-line with the pace of approval in recent month.</li>
<li>Pace of China game approval stays flattish, at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.</li>
<li>Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game. We saw a pattern of approval rotation for the duo.</li>
</ul>


China just announced game approval for May batch. The number of games approved is in-line with the pace of approval in recent month.
Pace of China game approval stays flattish, at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game. We saw a pattern of approval rotation for the duo.


Tencent/Netease: Game Approval Rotation in May

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (9626 HK)

[Bilibili (BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) TP Change]: The Launch Of "Uma Musume" May Face More Delay

We cut our revenue estimations for 2H23, mainly due to increased uncertainty surrounding the launch of "Uma Musume." Our rev./non-GAAP net income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $366m Outflows in June

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for June and highlight flows for PetroChina, China Mobile, Xpeng, Bilibili, Kuaishou, CCB, ICBC, BYD, HSBC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 16th): CCB

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week. We estimate the inflows to be USD 1.5bn and highlight flows for China Construction Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Blibili (9626 HK): 1Q23, Consequence of Subsidy Cut, Downgrade to Hold

BILI’s revenue grew by zero YoY in 1Q22, but operating losses shrank significantly. The company reduced the subsidies to video uploaders, so that...

Ming Lu

Tencent/Netease: Game Approval Rotation in May

We analyzed the game approval for May. Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game. We see pattern of approval rotation between key...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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