Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $3 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.</li><li>We believe, with Fall now in full swing, Vince is flexing their ability to act strategically both fashion-wise and financially, rolling out impressive looks in sweaters, outerwear, dresses and accessories, expanding men's with new bottoms in multiple colors and silhouettes and layering tops, tees, sweaters and knits.</li><li>Further, the company has been able to drive strong instock levels and expand the colors and products offered to the stores to drive higher overall sales and margins.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $3 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.We believe, with Fall now in full swing, Vince is flexing their ability to act strategically both fashion-wise and financially, rolling out impressive looks in sweaters, outerwear, dresses and accessories, expanding men's with new bottoms in multiple colors and silhouettes and layering tops, tees, sweaters and knits.Further, the company has been able to drive strong instock levels and expand the colors and products offered to the stores to drive higher overall sales and margins.

Pvh Corp - VNCE: Snapping the Store: Strategically Focused for Fall; Reiterate Buy, $3 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $3 price target for VNCE, slightly reducing our FY24 top line, but increasing our bottom line projections after the company reported solid 2Q results, driven by stronger than expected wholesale revenue.</li><li>With the company now fully anniversarying the ABG Vince relationship, and the drive to materially reduce clearance and discount levels at their own stores completed, we believe 2HFY24 will begin to visibly demonstrate the power of the Vince brand to drive returns and position the company for further material top and bottom line expansion in FY25 from new store openings, further expansion in men's, international growth and continued wholesale door and segment expansion which, when further fueled by ABG Vince category expansion, debt reduction and share repurchases, positions the company for material upside.</li><li>As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $3 price target for VNCE.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $3 price target for VNCE, slightly reducing our FY24 top line, but increasing our bottom line projections after the company reported solid 2Q results, driven by stronger than expected wholesale revenue.With the company now fully anniversarying the ABG Vince relationship, and the drive to materially reduce clearance and discount levels at their own stores completed, we believe 2HFY24 will begin to visibly demonstrate the power of the Vince brand to drive returns and position the company for further material top and bottom line expansion in FY25 from new store openings, further expansion in men's, international growth and continued wholesale door and segment expansion which, when further fueled by ABG Vince category expansion, debt reduction and share repurchases, positions the company for material upside.As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $3 price target for VNCE.

Pvh Corp - VNCE: 2Q Review: Driving Upside, Remaining Conservative; Reiterate Buy, $3 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $3 price target and projections with Vince reporting 2QFY24 (July) results after the close on Monday.</li><li>We believe Vince achieved solid 2Q top line expansion, as the company has shifted more goods away from the outlet channel to the main line wholesale channel and the company's owned stores.</li><li>Further, we believe the resumption of a stronger flow of full priced, highly fashionable goods for Summer and pre-Fall has driven strong top line momentum into 2HFY25.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $3 price target and projections with Vince reporting 2QFY24 (July) results after the close on Monday.We believe Vince achieved solid 2Q top line expansion, as the company has shifted more goods away from the outlet channel to the main line wholesale channel and the company's owned stores.Further, we believe the resumption of a stronger flow of full priced, highly fashionable goods for Summer and pre-Fall has driven strong top line momentum into 2HFY25.

Pvh Corp - VNCE: 2Q Preview: Showing Their True Strength; Reiterate Buy, $3 PT

<ul><li>We are lowering our projections and price target for GUESS?, but reiterating our Buy rating, after the company reported inline 2Q results, but lowered FY25 top and bottom line guidance, as the company continues to invest in marketing and infrastructure for their recently completed rag and bone acquisition and the launch of Guess Jeans, while the domestic store operations remain under pressure.</li><li>While we fully understand and agree with the potential of the material opportunities for rag and bone and Guess Jeans to leverage the company's global and licensing infrastructure in the longer term, we believe investor frustration in the near term will be a key theme.</li><li>That said, with the GES dividend yield of approximately 6% and with our belief the upside potential of both rag and bone and Guess Jeans will become increasingly apparent relatively quickly, we are maintaining our Buy rating, even after lowering our FY25 projections below management guidance.</li></ul>

We are lowering our projections and price target for GUESS?, but reiterating our Buy rating, after the company reported inline 2Q results, but lowered FY25 top and bottom line guidance, as the company continues to invest in marketing and infrastructure for their recently completed rag and bone acquisition and the launch of Guess Jeans, while the domestic store operations remain under pressure.While we fully understand and agree with the potential of the material opportunities for rag and bone and Guess Jeans to leverage the company's global and licensing infrastructure in the longer term, we believe investor frustration in the near term will be a key theme.That said, with the GES dividend yield of approximately 6% and with our belief the upside potential of both rag and bone and Guess Jeans will become increasingly apparent relatively quickly, we are maintaining our Buy rating, even after lowering our FY25 projections below management guidance.

GES: 2Q Review: Thinking Longer Term, But What About NT?; Lowering EPS, PT

United States

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. retails men's and women's casual apparel, footwear, outerwear, and accessories.  The Company's products include jeans, khakis, T-shirts, and other similar apparel.  American Eagle operates in the United States.

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American Eagle Outfitters (AEO US)

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Pvh Corp - VNCE: Snapping the Store: Strategically Focused for Fall; Reiterate Buy, $3 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $3 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New...

Small Cap Consumer Research

Pvh Corp - VNCE: 2Q Review: Driving Upside, Remaining Conservative; Reiterate Buy, $3 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $3 price target for VNCE, slightly reducing our FY24 top line, but increasing our bottom line projections...

Small Cap Consumer Research

Pvh Corp - VNCE: 2Q Preview: Showing Their True Strength; Reiterate Buy, $3 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $3 price target and projections with Vince reporting 2QFY24 (July) results after the close on Monday. We...

Small Cap Consumer Research

GES: 2Q Review: Thinking Longer Term, But What About NT?; Lowering EPS, PT

We are lowering our projections and price target for GUESS?, but reiterating our Buy rating, after the company reported inline 2Q results, but...

Small Cap Consumer Research

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