Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Alibaba (BABA US) is set to report earnings tomorrow on the 23rd</li>
<li>Stock has pulled back from the highs but earnings could be the next catalyst to determine direction</li>
<li>We use the derivatives market to extract market expectations and suggest some suitable trades</li>
</ul>


Alibaba (BABA US) is set to report earnings tomorrow on the 23rd
Stock has pulled back from the highs but earnings could be the next catalyst to determine direction
We use the derivatives market to extract market expectations and suggest some suitable trades


EQD | Alibaba (BABA US): Playing the Earnings Via Derivatives

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Jiangsu Fangzhou Chemical / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fangzhou-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36560:1" rel="noopener">Fangzhou Group (FANGZHOU HK)</a> is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Fangzhou (FZ) is an online chronic disease management (CDM) service provider in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Fangzhou Group (FANGZHOU HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Fangzhou (FZ) is an online chronic disease management (CDM) service provider in China.
In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Fangzhou Pre-IPO - The Positives - Regulatory Changes and COVID Spurred Growth

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s 3QFY23 results scheduled to release this Thursday is yet again going to be somewhat disappointing with our analysis indicating around RMB35.0bn OP cf. RMB49.7bn in 3QFY21.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, 3QFY23 results could beat the conservative consensus revenue estimate by 2.8% while the OP is likely to be in line with consensus.</li>
<li>Having risen 100%+ in few months, a small beat is unlikely to drive-up the share price any longer. Renewed US-China tensions are likely going to be a much bigger driver.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s 3QFY23 results scheduled to release this Thursday is yet again going to be somewhat disappointing with our analysis indicating around RMB35.0bn OP cf. RMB49.7bn in 3QFY21.
Nevertheless, 3QFY23 results could beat the conservative consensus revenue estimate by 2.8% while the OP is likely to be in line with consensus.
Having risen 100%+ in few months, a small beat is unlikely to drive-up the share price any longer. Renewed US-China tensions are likely going to be a much bigger driver.


Alibaba: A Mediocre Beat Won't Nullify Escalating US-China Tensions & A Deteriorating Core Business

Ethan Aw

TVS Supply Chain Solutions / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-supply-chain-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36778:1" rel="noopener">TVS Supply Chain Solutions (1915741D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>TVS SCS is an Indian supply chain logistics solution provider which also has global capabilities and network across the value chain with cross deployment abilities, according to RedSeer. </li>
<li>TVS SCS has seen its revenue grow as both its operating segments registered decent growth during the track record period. However, its profitability might have been a result of COVID-19. </li>
</ul>



TVS Supply Chain Solutions (1915741D IN) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.
TVS SCS is an Indian supply chain logistics solution provider which also has global capabilities and network across the value chain with cross deployment abilities, according to RedSeer. 
TVS SCS has seen its revenue grow as both its operating segments registered decent growth during the track record period. However, its profitability might have been a result of COVID-19. 


TVS Supply Chain Solutions Pre-IPO - Profitability Might Have Been COVID-Driven

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

China Renaissance Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-renaissance-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27365:1" rel="noopener"><strong>China Renaissance (1911 HK)</strong></a> was once touted as a "<em>leading investment bank and asset manager dedicated to the new economy</em>". At the time of its 1Q21 post-IPO high, it was.</li>
<li>Late last Thursday, the 16 February, CR said it was <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0216/2023021600837.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unable to contact</a> (hours, days, weeks?) Bao Fan, its chairman, CEO, and controlling shareholder. Shares subsequently fell 28%.</li>
<li>Bao is the face of CR and instrumental in client dealing and complex large-scale deal making. Clarification is recommended before investors dip their toe back in the water.</li>
</ul>



China Renaissance (1911 HK) was once touted as a "leading investment bank and asset manager dedicated to the new economy". At the time of its 1Q21 post-IPO high, it was.
Late last Thursday, the 16 February, CR said it was unable to contact (hours, days, weeks?) Bao Fan, its chairman, CEO, and controlling shareholder. Shares subsequently fell 28%.
Bao is the face of CR and instrumental in client dealing and complex large-scale deal making. Clarification is recommended before investors dip their toe back in the water.


China Renaissance (1911 HK): Loss of Face

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

EQD | Alibaba (BABA US): Playing the Earnings Via Derivatives

We look at the derivatives market to extract expected moves for the upcoming earnings release in BABA US. We consider some trading options based on...

Simon Harris

Fangzhou Pre-IPO - The Positives - Regulatory Changes and COVID Spurred Growth

Fangzhou Group (FANGZHOU HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects...

Clarence Chu

Alibaba: A Mediocre Beat Won't Nullify Escalating US-China Tensions & A Deteriorating Core Business

Having risen more than 100% from the bottom in the past 3.5 months, we don’t think a small beat could drive up the share price any longer. Renewed...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Pre-IPO - Profitability Might Have Been COVID-Driven

TVS Supply Chain Solutions (1915741D IN) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. TVS SCS is an Indian supply chain logistics...

Ethan Aw

China Renaissance (1911 HK): Loss of Face

When your key man, who is instrumental to the company's fortunes - and its major shareholder - disappears without any explanation, it is a brave...

David Blennerhassett

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