HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>2023 is the worst year for our "Buy the Worst" strategy as it returned -34.5% YTD, underperforming the HSI by 20.7pp. The two property names are the key drags.</li>
<li>Despite a poor 2023, the strategy has still outperformed the HSI by 17.9pp for 2018-2023. It remains significantly better than buying the winners in the current year.</li>
<li>For 2024, our strategy is to switch to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


2023 is the worst year for our "Buy the Worst" strategy as it returned -34.5% YTD, underperforming the HSI by 20.7pp. The two property names are the key drags.
Despite a poor 2023, the strategy has still outperformed the HSI by 17.9pp for 2018-2023. It remains significantly better than buying the winners in the current year.
For 2024, our strategy is to switch to Li Ning (2331 HK), Country Garden Services (6098 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK). 


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: A Tragic 2023 and What About 2024?

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Casino Business Review LLC

Extensive experience in marketing and development in the Asian gaming market

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry

Equity Bottom-Up

Galaxy Entertainment Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our review of the  three stocks here reveals considerable run room ahead as revenue  recovery in Asia gaming is  outpacing  forecasts.</li>
<li>These companies  have proven   resilient after taking big hits during covid crisis.</li>
<li>Balance sheets are stronger, revenue  rising, margins  improved--much of  this not as yet  reflected in valuations.</li>
</ul>


Our review of the  three stocks here reveals considerable run room ahead as revenue  recovery in Asia gaming is  outpacing  forecasts.
These companies  have proven   resilient after taking big hits during covid crisis.
Balance sheets are stronger, revenue  rising, margins  improved--much of  this not as yet  reflected in valuations.


Our High Conviction Asia Based Gaming Stocks Signal Buy on the Dip Entry Points

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Macau's mass GGR in 3Q23, including slots, was down just 6.7% on 3Q19 levels, but up 11.1% quarter-on-quarter.</li>
<li>The shifting regulatory sands across the gaming landscape has resulted in VIP baccarat revenue accounting for 24% of GGR in 3Q23, down from 43.8% in 3Q19, and 64.6% in 3Q13.</li>
<li>All concessionaires have been impacted by the collapse of the junket industry. But those who relied less on VIP flow have fared better on a comparative basis.</li>
</ul>


Macau's mass GGR in 3Q23, including slots, was down just 6.7% on 3Q19 levels, but up 11.1% quarter-on-quarter.
The shifting regulatory sands across the gaming landscape has resulted in VIP baccarat revenue accounting for 24% of GGR in 3Q23, down from 43.8% in 3Q19, and 64.6% in 3Q13.
All concessionaires have been impacted by the collapse of the junket industry. But those who relied less on VIP flow have fared better on a comparative basis.


Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)</a> last week closed strongly up. This week it's pulling back, but MRM pattern readings forecast a very short-lived pullback (-1 to -2 weeks).</li>
<li>The suggested strategy is: let the index play out its pullback (warning: it can be volatile) and then enter LONG trades when the probability is good.</li>
<li>
Suggested support price areas are between 18965 (Q2) and 18732 (Q3) - or this Friday at Close (as long as the close is negative).</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) last week closed strongly up. This week it's pulling back, but MRM pattern readings forecast a very short-lived pullback (-1 to -2 weeks).
The suggested strategy is: let the index play out its pullback (warning: it can be volatile) and then enter LONG trades when the probability is good.

Suggested support price areas are between 18965 (Q2) and 18732 (Q3) - or this Friday at Close (as long as the close is negative).


EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY Deep-But-Brief Pullback

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 21st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 21st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto

Hong Kong

Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited, through its subsidiary, operates casino, hotel and other entertainment facilities in Macau. The company also manufactures sells and distributes construction materials.

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Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: A Tragic 2023 and What About 2024?

2023 was bad for the "Buy the Worst" strategy, but it still outperformed the HSI for 2018-2023. In 2024, we will switch to Li Ning, Country Garden...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Our High Conviction Asia Based Gaming Stocks Signal Buy on the Dip Entry Points

Three Asia based gaming stocks we believe to be undervalued due to more rapid recovery in gross gaming revenues in Macau and e PHILIPPINES.

Howard J Klein

Macau Casinos: MGM China Looks Solid

MGM China continued to outperform the market amid of industry recovery. I'd be inclined to long MGM China outright here, or hedge against SJM.

David Blennerhassett

EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY Deep-But-Brief Pullback

The Hang Seng Index is pulling back, but this move should be short-lived according to the Market Reversal Matrix's analysis of the index's support...

Nico Rosti

HK Short Interest Weekly: Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 21st and highlight short interest changes in Galaxy Ent, Baba, East...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: A Tragic 2023 and What About 2024?

​2023 was bad for the "Buy the Worst" strategy, but it still outperformed the HSI for 2018-2023. In 2024, we will switch to Li Ning, Country Garden...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Our High Conviction Asia Based Gaming Stocks Signal Buy on the Dip Entry Points

Three Asia based gaming stocks we believe to be undervalued due to more rapid recovery in gross gaming revenues in Macau and e PHILIPPINES.

Howard J Klein

Macau Casinos: MGM China Looks Solid

MGM China continued to outperform the market amid of industry recovery. I'd be inclined to long MGM China outright here, or hedge against SJM.

David Blennerhassett

EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY Deep-But-Brief Pullback

The Hang Seng Index is pulling back, but this move should be short-lived according to the Market Reversal Matrix's analysis of the index's support...

Nico Rosti

HK Short Interest Weekly: Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 21st and highlight short interest changes in Galaxy Ent, Baba, East...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

2023 was bad for the "Buy the Worst" strategy, but it still outperformed the HSI for 2018-2023. In 2024, we will switch to Li Ning, Country Garden...