Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>First mover advantage is half-truth. For every academic study proving that first-mover advantages exist, there is a study proving they do not.</li>
<li>Engineers at OpenAI, scaled up a special machine learning method using large data sets to create GPT or "Generative Pre-trained Transformer."</li>
<li>Launch of ChatGPT has put OpenAI revenues on steroids with reports suggesting USD 1.3B this year (versus USD 28 million before ChatGPT was rolled out).</li>
</ul>


First mover advantage is half-truth. For every academic study proving that first-mover advantages exist, there is a study proving they do not.
Engineers at OpenAI, scaled up a special machine learning method using large data sets to create GPT or "Generative Pre-trained Transformer."
Launch of ChatGPT has put OpenAI revenues on steroids with reports suggesting USD 1.3B this year (versus USD 28 million before ChatGPT was rolled out).


Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Post 3Q earnings, investors have regained confidence in AI capital spending for the next few quarters. Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta (“CSP3 &amp; Meta”) all announced QoQ increases in their 3Q capex.</li><li>The aggregate number topped US$37bn, representing the fourth highest quarterly spending in history.</li><li>These companies are committed to ramping up spending to remain competitive at the AI front line</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Post 3Q earnings, investors have regained confidence in AI capital spending for the next few quarters. Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta (“CSP3 &amp; Meta”) all announced QoQ increases in their 3Q capex.The aggregate number topped US$37bn, representing the fourth highest quarterly spending in history.These companies are committed to ramping up spending to remain competitive at the AI front lineContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology (Hardware/Semi): CSP3 & Meta Ramp up Spending to Stay at the AI Front Line

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. </li>
<li>Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! </li>
<li>And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>
</ul>


This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. 
Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! 
And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

<ul><li>Since our downgrade report on 14 Aug, we have seen a continuous decline on Innolight’s share price by more than 23%.</li><li>Our current view on the stock is becoming increasingly favourable, driven by: 1) continuous strong momentum observed in building up AI infrastructure globally; and 2) quick uptake seen in downstream application market (e.g., AI-powered Ads adopted by Meta, Google and Amazon, GitHub copilot by Microsoft).</li><li>In addition, companies within the AI hardware value chain start to report strong earnings. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Since our downgrade report on 14 Aug, we have seen a continuous decline on Innolight’s share price by more than 23%.Our current view on the stock is becoming increasingly favourable, driven by: 1) continuous strong momentum observed in building up AI infrastructure globally; and 2) quick uptake seen in downstream application market (e.g., AI-powered Ads adopted by Meta, Google and Amazon, GitHub copilot by Microsoft).In addition, companies within the AI hardware value chain start to report strong earnings. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Innolight (300308 CH) – Expect Higher Contribution from AI Revenue in 3Q

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased </li>
<li>Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.</li>
<li>We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers</li>
</ul>


As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers


S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta Platforms (Facebook) (META US)

Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?

At the Ignite conference, Microsoft announced the Maia 100 AI Accelarator which is optimized for Azure. It will cater towards customer's AI demand....

Mint Finance

Technology (Hardware/Semi): CSP3 & Meta Ramp up Spending to Stay at the AI Front Line

Post 3Q earnings, investors have regained confidence in AI capital spending for the next few quarters. Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta (“CSP3 &...

CMB International

The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

When something is 'priced for perfection,' disappointment is inevitable. Just ask Google. By the way, a spot Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, too. This...

Jeroen Blokland

Innolight (300308 CH) – Expect Higher Contribution from AI Revenue in 3Q

Our current view on the stock is becoming increasingly favourable, driven by: 1) continuous strong momentum observed in building up AI...

CMB International

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

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