IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Seoul Guarantee Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a>, a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).</li>
<li>The IPO price range is KRW39,500-51,800 per share. The bookbuilding will run from 13 to 19 October, with pricing on 25 October. The shares will be listed in November.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a leading market share, solid premium growth, the highest industry margins, a high solvency ratio and a high dividend payout. </li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS), a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).
The IPO price range is KRW39,500-51,800 per share. The bookbuilding will run from 13 to 19 October, with pricing on 25 October. The shares will be listed in November.
The bull case rests on a leading market share, solid premium growth, the highest industry margins, a high solvency ratio and a high dividend payout. 


Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

Lotte Non Life Insurance Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It was reported in numerous local media that the sale process of Lotte Non Life Insurance Co (000400 KS) could start in October 2023.</li>
<li>There are four companies including Shinhan Financial (055550 KS), Hana Financial (086790 KS), Woori Financial Group (316140 KS), and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in acquiring Lotte Non-Life Insurance. </li>
<li>Minority shareholders are not likely to benefit from this potential huge management M&amp;A premium of Lotte Non-Life Insurance. </li>
</ul>


It was reported in numerous local media that the sale process of Lotte Non Life Insurance Co (000400 KS) could start in October 2023.
There are four companies including Shinhan Financial (055550 KS), Hana Financial (086790 KS), Woori Financial Group (316140 KS), and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in acquiring Lotte Non-Life Insurance. 
Minority shareholders are not likely to benefit from this potential huge management M&amp;A premium of Lotte Non-Life Insurance. 


Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> WEEKLY did rise last week and is approaching OVERBOUGHT territory based on the current short-term trend pattern (Q3 resistance is at 346).</li>
<li>The current pattern is bearish, but if the market gains momentum and rallies for 2 more weeks, <strong>it could reach 357 during the 3rd week up</strong> (<strong>not earlier</strong>).</li>
<li>The alternative scenario, a better fit for this bearish pattern, is that the index starts to pull back this week, or remains weak this week and falls the next.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 INDEX WEEKLY did rise last week and is approaching OVERBOUGHT territory based on the current short-term trend pattern (Q3 resistance is at 346).
The current pattern is bearish, but if the market gains momentum and rallies for 2 more weeks, it could reach 357 during the 3rd week up (not earlier).
The alternative scenario, a better fit for this bearish pattern, is that the index starts to pull back this week, or remains weak this week and falls the next.


EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 48,052 won which is within the IPO price range of 39,500 won to 51,800 won. </li>
<li>Given the lack of upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a negative view of this deal. </li>
<li>We are not impressed with the company's lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit in 2023. The valuation range as proposed by the bankers is also not attractive. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 48,052 won which is within the IPO price range of 39,500 won to 51,800 won. 
Given the lack of upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a negative view of this deal. 
We are not impressed with the company's lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit in 2023. The valuation range as proposed by the bankers is also not attractive. 


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Valuation Analysis

<ul>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in the next several weeks. The IPO price range is from 39,500 won to 51,800 won. </li>
<li>Market cap is from 2.8 trillion won to 3.6 trillion won. At the high end of the IPO price range, this could be the biggest IPO in Korea in 2023.</li>
<li>Many investors will be skeptical on the bankers including two overseas comps (Travelers and Coface) which have much higher valuations.</li>
</ul>


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in the next several weeks. The IPO price range is from 39,500 won to 51,800 won. 
Market cap is from 2.8 trillion won to 3.6 trillion won. At the high end of the IPO price range, this could be the biggest IPO in Korea in 2023.
Many investors will be skeptical on the bankers including two overseas comps (Travelers and Coface) which have much higher valuations.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Preview

South Korea

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers auto, fire, marine, casualty, health, leisure, and retirement products and services. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a leading market share, solid premium growth, the highest industry margins, a high solvency ratio and a high dividend payout.

Arun George

Lotte Non-Life Insurance: Who Will Buy?

There are four companies including Shinhan Financial, Hana Financial, Woori Financial Group, and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in...

Douglas Kim

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...

Nico Rosti

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Valuation Analysis

Seoul Guarantee Insurance's IPO price range is not attractive due to lack of upside, lack of sales growth, and worsening operating profit in 2023.

Douglas Kim

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Preview

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in the next several weeks. At the high end of the IPO price range,...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a leading market share, solid premium growth, the highest industry margins, a high solvency ratio and a high dividend payout.

Arun George

Lotte Non-Life Insurance: Who Will Buy?

There are four companies including Shinhan Financial, Hana Financial, Woori Financial Group, and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in...

Douglas Kim

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

​The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...

Nico Rosti

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Valuation Analysis

​Seoul Guarantee Insurance's IPO price range is not attractive due to lack of upside, lack of sales growth, and worsening operating profit in 2023.

Douglas Kim

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Preview

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in the next several weeks. At the high end of the IPO price range,...

Douglas Kim

The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...

Seoul Guarantee Insurance's IPO price range is not attractive due to lack of upside, lack of sales growth, and worsening operating profit in 2023.