Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Lattice is just too expensive for what it is. It’s one of the highest multiples in the space, but I acknowledge we are closer to the trough than the peak.</li><li>Tokyo Electron continues to be bullish high aspect etch and reports that they are winning in DRAM and hopefully in NAND in the future.</li><li>Arista says that AI revenue is yet to come, and 800G will mostly be in 2025, not 2024. The market got ahead of itself.</li></ul>

Lattice is just too expensive for what it is. It’s one of the highest multiples in the space, but I acknowledge we are closer to the trough than the peak.Tokyo Electron continues to be bullish high aspect etch and reports that they are winning in DRAM and hopefully in NAND in the future.Arista says that AI revenue is yet to come, and 800G will mostly be in 2025, not 2024. The market got ahead of itself.

Earnings (LSCC, ANET, GFS, Tokyo Electron, SITM, ENTG, AMAT)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q124 revenues of $6.71 billion, at the high end of the guided range and essentially flat sequentially both QoQ and YoY</li>
<li>Q224 revenue $6.5 billion at the midpoint, a modest downward movement of 3% QoQ and in line with what we saw from peers KLAC and LRCX</li>
<li>Still a great company with excellent growth prospects, just not in 2024</li>
</ul>


Q124 revenues of $6.71 billion, at the high end of the guided range and essentially flat sequentially both QoQ and YoY
Q224 revenue $6.5 billion at the midpoint, a modest downward movement of 3% QoQ and in line with what we saw from peers KLAC and LRCX
Still a great company with excellent growth prospects, just not in 2024


AMAT. Post Earnings Surge For No Good Reason

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei hasn’t been this high since the Berlin Wall came toppling down. The Nikkei was up over 4% on the week and stands 15% higher YTD.</li>
<li>There were plenty of reasons not to be higher. US stocks closed marginally lower; AI stocks like  SMCI crashed on Friday; </li>
<li>Japanese stocks were higher but that hides significant divergence between the winners and losers after a heavy week of earnings releases. Perhaps a pause for breath next week.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei hasn’t been this high since the Berlin Wall came toppling down. The Nikkei was up over 4% on the week and stands 15% higher YTD.
There were plenty of reasons not to be higher. US stocks closed marginally lower; AI stocks like  SMCI crashed on Friday; 
Japanese stocks were higher but that hides significant divergence between the winners and losers after a heavy week of earnings releases. Perhaps a pause for breath next week.


Japan Weekly | Rakuten, Asics, Ebara, Tokyo Electron Chalk up Big Gains

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/screen-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5563:1" rel="noopener">SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP)</a> could be added to a global index at the end of the month and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.</li>
<li>There is a fair bit of positioning for the potential passive buying and there will be supply in the stock.</li>
<li>However, the stock trades cheaper than its peers and a correction could provide an opportunity for long-term investors to enter the stock.</li>
</ul>



SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP) could be added to a global index at the end of the month and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.
There is a fair bit of positioning for the potential passive buying and there will be supply in the stock.
However, the stock trades cheaper than its peers and a correction could provide an opportunity for long-term investors to enter the stock.


Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>  <a href="https://www.jsr.co.jp/jsr_e/news/2024/20240202.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> 2 February on its website that the Research Foundation for the State University of New York (“RF SUNY”) <a href="https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/52119743/The_Research_Foundation_for_the_State_University_of_New_York_v_Inpria_Corporation_et_al" target="_blank" rel="noopener">filed suit</a> against JSR subsidiary Inpria 25 January.</li>
<li>JSR claims no wrongdoing. A court order from the US District Court for the Northern District of New York denied RF SUNY's request for a hearing by 5 February.</li>
<li>This may put a short-term damper on sentiment in the name, and I expect the JICC people have been working on this for a week. </li>
</ul>



JSR Corp (4185 JP)  announced 2 February on its website that the Research Foundation for the State University of New York (“RF SUNY”) filed suit against JSR subsidiary Inpria 25 January.
JSR claims no wrongdoing. A court order from the US District Court for the Northern District of New York denied RF SUNY's request for a hearing by 5 February.
This may put a short-term damper on sentiment in the name, and I expect the JICC people have been working on this for a week. 


JSR (4185) - Possible Trouble in Arb Land as SUNY/CNSE Files Suit Against JSR Sub Inpria

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

Earnings (LSCC, ANET, GFS, Tokyo Electron, SITM, ENTG, AMAT)

Lattice is just too expensive for what it is. It’s one of the highest multiples in the space, but I acknowledge we are closer to the trough than...

Fabricated Knowledge

AMAT. Post Earnings Surge For No Good Reason

Q124 revenues of $6.71 billion, flat both QoQ and YoY. Q224 revenue $6.5 billion, in line with peers. No full year 2024 guidance. WFE has more...

William Keating

Japan Weekly | Rakuten, Asics, Ebara, Tokyo Electron Chalk up Big Gains

Despite potential reasons for caution, the Nikkei reached a new high not seen since the fall of the Berlin Wall, with a 4% increase for the week...

Mark Chadwick

Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

The increased market cap could lead to Screen Holdings being added to passive portfolios at the end of Feb. Positioning in the stock is larger than...

Brian Freitas

JSR (4185) - Possible Trouble in Arb Land as SUNY/CNSE Files Suit Against JSR Sub Inpria

JSR's takeover by JIC should be nearing a launch. 10 days ago, following a Lam Rsrch defense filing, the SUNY Research Foundation filed suit...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Earnings (LSCC, ANET, GFS, Tokyo Electron, SITM, ENTG, AMAT)

Lattice is just too expensive for what it is. It’s one of the highest multiples in the space, but I acknowledge we are closer to the trough than...

Fabricated Knowledge

AMAT. Post Earnings Surge For No Good Reason

Q124 revenues of $6.71 billion, flat both QoQ and YoY. Q224 revenue $6.5 billion, in line with peers. No full year 2024 guidance. WFE has more...

William Keating

Japan Weekly | Rakuten, Asics, Ebara, Tokyo Electron Chalk up Big Gains

​Despite potential reasons for caution, the Nikkei reached a new high not seen since the fall of the Berlin Wall, with a 4% increase for the week...

Mark Chadwick

Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

The increased market cap could lead to Screen Holdings being added to passive portfolios at the end of Feb. Positioning in the stock is larger than...

Brian Freitas

JSR (4185) - Possible Trouble in Arb Land as SUNY/CNSE Files Suit Against JSR Sub Inpria

JSR's takeover by JIC should be nearing a launch. 10 days ago, following a Lam Rsrch defense filing, the SUNY Research Foundation filed suit...

Travis Lundy

Despite potential reasons for caution, the Nikkei reached a new high not seen since the fall of the Berlin Wall, with a 4% increase for the week...