Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".</li>
<li>Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a>merger affects Japan steel sector.</li>
<li>Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.</li>
</ul>


BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".
Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)merger affects Japan steel sector.
Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.


JAPAN:  No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Act II  of the drama begins  and continues from where it left off in early August</li>
<li>Sentiment has changed - bad news really  is  bad news</li>
<li>With &gt;100 basis points of cuts already priced in before year end...</li>
</ul>


Act II  of the drama begins  and continues from where it left off in early August
Sentiment has changed - bad news really  is  bad news
With &gt;100 basis points of cuts already priced in before year end...


Tactical Trading – Time to Sell Japan Again

<ul>
<li>Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.</li>
<li>Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.</li>
<li>Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.</li>
</ul>


Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.
Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.
Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.


Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US profit-taking in tech/growth will set a muted tone to start as the market holds its breath for comments from BoJ Gov. Ueda who addresses parliament this morning.</li>
<li>China chip imports at record highs may add to pressure for the US to broaden its export restrictions for specific technologies as well as  for legacy node equipment.</li>
<li>Koizumi leading the polls will be positive for renewable energy names which remain highly oversold after the multi-year weakness in Japanese small caps.</li>
</ul>


US profit-taking in tech/growth will set a muted tone to start as the market holds its breath for comments from BoJ Gov. Ueda who addresses parliament this morning.
China chip imports at record highs may add to pressure for the US to broaden its export restrictions for specific technologies as well as  for legacy node equipment.
Koizumi leading the polls will be positive for renewable energy names which remain highly oversold after the multi-year weakness in Japanese small caps.


Japan Morning Connection: BoJ Anticipation and Koizumi Taking an Early Lead in the Polls

<ul>
<li>Upbeat results briefing from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Asahi Intecc</a> on Friday continues to make this look oversold with GPM bottoming, its MTP 1-year ahead of plan and strong growth outlooks for key markets China and US.</li>
<li>With numbers out for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/155896/Pan%20Pacific%20International%20Holdings%20(7532%20JP)" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PPIH</a> on Friday and the outlook reassuringly steady, this may start to get more attention as NKY225 inclusion candidate given it comes from the under-represented consumer goods segment.</li>
<li>AMAT numbers showing a decline in China revenues a red flag for Japanese SPE names overly reliant on China sales?</li>
</ul>


Upbeat results briefing from Asahi Intecc on Friday continues to make this look oversold with GPM bottoming, its MTP 1-year ahead of plan and strong growth outlooks for key markets China and US.
With numbers out for PPIH on Friday and the outlook reassuringly steady, this may start to get more attention as NKY225 inclusion candidate given it comes from the under-represented consumer goods segment.
AMAT numbers showing a decline in China revenues a red flag for Japanese SPE names overly reliant on China sales?


Japan Morning Connection: Asahi Intecc, PPIH

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

JAPAN: No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

BOJ sends mixed signals on its pace of tightening as the JPY strengthens. Auto, semi and trading company sectors continue to be under pressure. A...

David Mudd

Tactical Trading – Time to Sell Japan Again

Act II of the drama continues with a shift in sentiment towards bad news, as over 100 basis points of cuts are already priced in before year end.

Rikki Malik

Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

We pointed out that Japan's semi industry may be at risk as part of the "Trump Trade" sentiment. It turns out that Biden has already thrown...

David Mudd

Japan Morning Connection: BoJ Anticipation and Koizumi Taking an Early Lead in the Polls

US profit-taking in tech/growth may dampen market, China chip imports at record highs could broaden US export restrictions, Koizumi leading polls...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Asahi Intecc, PPIH

Positive results from Asahi Intecc show oversold potential; PPIH's steady outlook may indicate NKY225 cadidate; AMAT numbers showing decline in...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JAPAN: No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

BOJ sends mixed signals on its pace of tightening as the JPY strengthens. Auto, semi and trading company sectors continue to be under pressure. A...

David Mudd

Tactical Trading – Time to Sell Japan Again

​Act II of the drama continues with a shift in sentiment towards bad news, as over 100 basis points of cuts are already priced in before year end.

Rikki Malik

Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

We pointed out that Japan's semi industry may be at risk as part of the "Trump Trade" sentiment. It turns out that Biden has already thrown...

David Mudd

Japan Morning Connection: BoJ Anticipation and Koizumi Taking an Early Lead in the Polls

​US profit-taking in tech/growth may dampen market, China chip imports at record highs could broaden US export restrictions, Koizumi leading polls...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Asahi Intecc, PPIH

​Positive results from Asahi Intecc show oversold potential; PPIH's steady outlook may indicate NKY225 cadidate; AMAT numbers showing decline in...

Andrew Jackson

Act II of the drama continues with a shift in sentiment towards bad news, as over 100 basis points of cuts are already priced in before year end.

US profit-taking in tech/growth may dampen market, China chip imports at record highs could broaden US export restrictions, Koizumi leading polls...

Positive results from Asahi Intecc show oversold potential; PPIH's steady outlook may indicate NKY225 cadidate; AMAT numbers showing decline in...