Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund

<ul>
<li>In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.</li>
<li>After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.
We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.
After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.


Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets, Kaiko

Kaiko

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets

Kaiko is the leading cryptocurrency market data provider for institutional investors and enterprises. We empower market participants with accurate, transparent, and actionable financial data to be leveraged for a range of market activities. Kaiko’s mission is to be the foundation of the new digital finance economy by serving as a single source for market information. Our mission is premised on the idea that high-quality data drives market efficiency and greater transparency throughout the industry. For each of our enterprise clients, we build custom data plans designed for a range of use cases.

Crypto

<ul><li>Price Movements: BTC gained another 10% this week despite news that Genesis had filed for bankruptcy, with a reported $5bn in liabilities.</li><li>Market Liquidity: Trade volume on the largest Asia-based exchanges fell to multi-year lows amid a tough regulatory environment in the region. </li><li>Derivatives: BTC open interest has dropped 25% as a short squeeze hits derivatives traders.</li></ul>

Price Movements: BTC gained another 10% this week despite news that Genesis had filed for bankruptcy, with a reported $5bn in liabilities.Market Liquidity: Trade volume on the largest Asia-based exchanges fell to multi-year lows amid a tough regulatory environment in the region. Derivatives: BTC open interest has dropped 25% as a short squeeze hits derivatives traders.

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

<ul>
<li>On 12 January we published a bullish tactical recommendation in Ethereum (XETUSD).</li>
<li>We determined that Ethereum at 1400.813 was evolving into a sustainable multi-month uptrend and was likely to initially target a 19.6% upswing to 1675.58. </li>
<li>Ethereum achieved our initial target at 1675.58 (+19.6%) on 21 January 2023.</li>
</ul>


On 12 January we published a bullish tactical recommendation in Ethereum (XETUSD).
We determined that Ethereum at 1400.813 was evolving into a sustainable multi-month uptrend and was likely to initially target a 19.6% upswing to 1675.58. 
Ethereum achieved our initial target at 1675.58 (+19.6%) on 21 January 2023.


Ethereum (XETUSD): Target Achieved in 9 Days (+19.6%)

<ul><li>In six years, stablecoins have grown from making up just 1.5% of BTC trade volume relative to fiat currencies such as the Dollar or Euro, to more than 87%.</li><li>This has been matched with an explosion in market capitalization for the three largest centralized stablecoins: Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC), and Binance USD (BUSD).</li><li>The three had a combined market cap of $10bn in May 2020, the start of DeFi Summer.</li></ul>

In six years, stablecoins have grown from making up just 1.5% of BTC trade volume relative to fiat currencies such as the Dollar or Euro, to more than 87%.This has been matched with an explosion in market capitalization for the three largest centralized stablecoins: Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC), and Binance USD (BUSD).The three had a combined market cap of $10bn in May 2020, the start of DeFi Summer.

<ul>
<li>On 12 January we published a bullish tactical recommendation in Bitcoin (XBTUSD).</li>
<li>We determined that Bitcoin at 18281 was evolving into a sustainable multi-month uptrend and was likely to initially target a 17.4% upswing to 21469.50.</li>
<li>•Bitcoin achieved our initial target at 21469.50 (+17.4%) on 17 January 2023.</li>
</ul>


On 12 January we published a bullish tactical recommendation in Bitcoin (XBTUSD).
We determined that Bitcoin at 18281 was evolving into a sustainable multi-month uptrend and was likely to initially target a 17.4% upswing to 21469.50.
•Bitcoin achieved our initial target at 21469.50 (+17.4%) on 17 January 2023.


Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%)

United States

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

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Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the $SPX 4100-4165 area. Upgrading...

Vermilion Research

FTT Returns From the Dead

Price Movements: BTC gained another 10% this week despite news that Genesis had filed for bankruptcy, with a reported $5bn in liabilities.

Kaiko

Ethereum (XETUSD): Target Achieved in 9 Days (+19.6%)

The correct interpretation of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and it's ability to confirm impulsive and sustainable trends has delivered a 19.6%...

David Coloretti, CMT

The Three-Stablecoin Problem

In six years, stablecoins have grown from making up just 1.5% of BTC trade volume relative to fiat currencies such as the Dollar or Euro, to more...

Kaiko

Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%)

Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a powerful tool, when interpreted correctly, for confirming sustainable trend change. In this case we pre-empted a...

David Coloretti, CMT

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