Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Rising geopolitical tensions have driven gold prices 9% higher over the last 2 weeks. Risk of escalation provides further upside to gold prices. </li>
<li>Gold is trading at a key psychological price level of $2,000/oz with a bullish momentum. Previous rallies were rejected from the price level of $2,100/oz.</li>
<li>Consumption is expected to rise in India and China due to higher seasonal consumption in India and fading domestic premium in China. But, higher prices remain a drag.</li>
</ul>


Rising geopolitical tensions have driven gold prices 9% higher over the last 2 weeks. Risk of escalation provides further upside to gold prices. 
Gold is trading at a key psychological price level of $2,000/oz with a bullish momentum. Previous rallies were rejected from the price level of $2,100/oz.
Consumption is expected to rise in India and China due to higher seasonal consumption in India and fading domestic premium in China. But, higher prices remain a drag.


Seeking Shelter in Gold on Rising Geopolitical Risks

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity has been the key factor driving risk assets higher. It faces a short-term air pocket that investors need to understand</li>
<li>Three factors are dragging Global Liquidity -- the US Fed, the PBoC and the rising MOVE Index</li>
<li>Most important near-term, the US money market liquidity has suffered a major hit this week following the April 15th Tax-filing deadline. Next up the QFA at month-end</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity has been the key factor driving risk assets higher. It faces a short-term air pocket that investors need to understand
Three factors are dragging Global Liquidity -- the US Fed, the PBoC and the rising MOVE Index
Most important near-term, the US money market liquidity has suffered a major hit this week following the April 15th Tax-filing deadline. Next up the QFA at month-end


The Liquidity ‘Air Pocket’: A Short Update After US Tax Filing-Week

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>This week’s ‘CPI Print’ has caused something of a panic in the bond markets and has left the ‘Pivot’ Pundits struggling versus the ‘No Cuts’ crowd, some of whom are now doubling down and even talking about rate rises.</li><li>Traders in other markets are looking across with some degree of concern, long wary of the ability of the bond markets to trigger problems elsewhere.</li><li>So too are the politicians, keen for their particular narrative on the economy to win them votes, but concerned that they need the markets (and by extension the Fed) to support their cause.</li></ul>

This week’s ‘CPI Print’ has caused something of a panic in the bond markets and has left the ‘Pivot’ Pundits struggling versus the ‘No Cuts’ crowd, some of whom are now doubling down and even talking about rate rises.Traders in other markets are looking across with some degree of concern, long wary of the ability of the bond markets to trigger problems elsewhere.So too are the politicians, keen for their particular narrative on the economy to win them votes, but concerned that they need the markets (and by extension the Fed) to support their cause.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>The Fed stuck with its intention to cut rates three times this year while penciling in one rate cut less for 2025 and 2026.</li>
<li>The key takeaway was that Powell is really keen on maintaining ample liquidity instead of what he calls abundant liquidity now. </li>
<li>Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin love ample liquidity, especially when it becomes abundant again when the economy heads south.</li>
</ul>


The Fed stuck with its intention to cut rates three times this year while penciling in one rate cut less for 2025 and 2026.
The key takeaway was that Powell is really keen on maintaining ample liquidity instead of what he calls abundant liquidity now. 
Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin love ample liquidity, especially when it becomes abundant again when the economy heads south.


March FOMC Meeting Conclusion: Powell Likes His Balance Sheet ‘BIG!

<ul>
<li>Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.</li>
<li>For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.</li>
<li>Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.</li>
</ul>


Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.
For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.
Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.


Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Seeking Shelter in Gold on Rising Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical tensions boost gold prices, reaching $2,000/oz with potential for further gains. Rising consumption in India and China also...

Mint Finance

The Liquidity ‘Air Pocket’: A Short Update After US Tax Filing-Week

Global Liquidity is the key factor driving risk assets. It faces an 'air pocket' over coming weeks. Investors need to understand the three factors...

Michael J. Howell

Gold and Goldilocks

This week’s ‘CPI Print’ has caused something of a panic in the bond markets and has left the ‘Pivot’ Pundits struggling versus the ‘No Cuts’ crowd,...

Mark Tinker

March FOMC Meeting Conclusion: Powell Likes His Balance Sheet ‘BIG!

Even though the new Federal Reserve 'Dot Plot' looks marginally hawkish, Powell's strong emphasis on ample liquidity made markets cheer!

Jeroen Blokland

Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Taking an in-depth look at previous Bitcoin halvings by taking them out of isolation by adding economic and market circumstances: Why Spot Bitcoin...

Jeroen Blokland

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Seeking Shelter in Gold on Rising Geopolitical Risks

​Geopolitical tensions boost gold prices, reaching $2,000/oz with potential for further gains. Rising consumption in India and China also...

Mint Finance

The Liquidity ‘Air Pocket’: A Short Update After US Tax Filing-Week

Global Liquidity is the key factor driving risk assets. It faces an 'air pocket' over coming weeks. Investors need to understand the three factors...

Michael J. Howell

Gold and Goldilocks

This week’s ‘CPI Print’ has caused something of a panic in the bond markets and has left the ‘Pivot’ Pundits struggling versus the ‘No Cuts’ crowd,...

Mark Tinker

March FOMC Meeting Conclusion: Powell Likes His Balance Sheet ‘BIG!

Even though the new Federal Reserve 'Dot Plot' looks marginally hawkish, Powell's strong emphasis on ample liquidity made markets cheer!

Jeroen Blokland

Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Taking an in-depth look at previous Bitcoin halvings by taking them out of isolation by adding economic and market circumstances: Why Spot Bitcoin...

Jeroen Blokland

Geopolitical tensions boost gold prices, reaching $2,000/oz with potential for further gains. Rising consumption in India and China also...