Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Last week the World Gold Council published its figures for the fourth quarter of 2023.</li><li>Gold demand for technology, electronics and other industrial use cases continued to improve in nominal and YoY terms - pointing to an economic rebound.</li><li>“Technology demand proved another surprising element in 2023, churning out stellar growth in Q4, albeit from a low base.</li></ul>

Last week the World Gold Council published its figures for the fourth quarter of 2023.Gold demand for technology, electronics and other industrial use cases continued to improve in nominal and YoY terms - pointing to an economic rebound.“Technology demand proved another surprising element in 2023, churning out stellar growth in Q4, albeit from a low base.

Gold Demand Data Confirms Economic Rebound // Latest CTA Positioning Calls from UBS

Crude Palm Oil Active Contract / Commodities

<ul><li>Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the increasing fluctuations on the commodities markets.</li><li>This trend increased, especially since crude oil went negative when the Covid pandemic started and was followed by further volatility since the macro environment became even more fragile with the war in Ukraine and now the conflicts in the Middle East.</li><li>According to Ney York based consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the gross margin of trading houses amounted to 105 billion dollars in 2023.</li></ul>

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the increasing fluctuations on the commodities markets.This trend increased, especially since crude oil went negative when the Covid pandemic started and was followed by further volatility since the macro environment became even more fragile with the war in Ukraine and now the conflicts in the Middle East.According to Ney York based consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the gross margin of trading houses amounted to 105 billion dollars in 2023.

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>This week’s ‘CPI Print’ has caused something of a panic in the bond markets and has left the ‘Pivot’ Pundits struggling versus the ‘No Cuts’ crowd, some of whom are now doubling down and even talking about rate rises.</li><li>Traders in other markets are looking across with some degree of concern, long wary of the ability of the bond markets to trigger problems elsewhere.</li><li>So too are the politicians, keen for their particular narrative on the economy to win them votes, but concerned that they need the markets (and by extension the Fed) to support their cause.</li></ul>

This week’s ‘CPI Print’ has caused something of a panic in the bond markets and has left the ‘Pivot’ Pundits struggling versus the ‘No Cuts’ crowd, some of whom are now doubling down and even talking about rate rises.Traders in other markets are looking across with some degree of concern, long wary of the ability of the bond markets to trigger problems elsewhere.So too are the politicians, keen for their particular narrative on the economy to win them votes, but concerned that they need the markets (and by extension the Fed) to support their cause.

<ul><li>During last week, the International Energy Association (IEA) as well as OPEC both announced that demand for oil is slowing, revising down previous demand forecasts for the year and beyond.</li><li>The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone its plans to ease output cuts, the IEA stated.</li><li>Meanwhile, the growth from the US won’t be able to offset the slowdown from China, according to the agency.</li></ul>

During last week, the International Energy Association (IEA) as well as OPEC both announced that demand for oil is slowing, revising down previous demand forecasts for the year and beyond.The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone its plans to ease output cuts, the IEA stated.Meanwhile, the growth from the US won’t be able to offset the slowdown from China, according to the agency.

Copper Inventories Back at Pre-Covid Levels & Oil Demand Cuts Everywhere

<ul><li>CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs.</li><li>The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning. On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.</li><li>On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.</li></ul>

CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs.The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning. On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.

The Return of La Niña // CTA Positioning Update

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Gold Demand Data Confirms Economic Rebound // Latest CTA Positioning Calls from UBS

Gold demand for technology, electronics and other industrial use cases continued to improve in nominal and YoY terms - pointing to an economic...

The Commodity Report

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the...

The Commodity Report

Gold and Goldilocks

This week’s ‘CPI Print’ has caused something of a panic in the bond markets and has left the ‘Pivot’ Pundits struggling versus the ‘No Cuts’ crowd,...

Mark Tinker

Copper Inventories Back at Pre-Covid Levels & Oil Demand Cuts Everywhere

The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone...

The Commodity Report

The Return of La Niña // CTA Positioning Update

CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans...

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)