Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UOB saw bad loans rise 22% during the GFC where DBS saw bad loans rise 146%</li>
<li>During oil price collapse at FY16, DBS saw NPLs up 83%, UOB saw NPLs up 41%</li>
<li>In current downturn, a market capitalization decline may be less at UOB vs DBS</li>
</ul>


UOB saw bad loans rise 22% during the GFC where DBS saw bad loans rise 146%
During oil price collapse at FY16, DBS saw NPLs up 83%, UOB saw NPLs up 41%
In current downturn, a market capitalization decline may be less at UOB vs DBS


UOB & DBS - Major Divergence In Bad Loans Over Past 2 Crises

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

SBFC Finance Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbfc-finance-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36713:1" rel="noopener">SBFC Finance Limited (1547353D IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbfc-finance-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36713:1" rel="noopener"> </a>is looking to raise up to US$145m in its upcoming India IPO. </li>
<li>SBFC Finance is a systematically important, non-deposit taking non-banking finance company (NBFC-ND-SI), offering secured MSME Loans and Loans against Gold. </li>
<li>Even through COVID-19, it had managed to more than double its AUM through its branch expansion efforts. However, its NIM declined over the track record period and profitability growth slowed. </li>
</ul>



SBFC Finance Limited (1547353D IN) is looking to raise up to US$145m in its upcoming India IPO. 
SBFC Finance is a systematically important, non-deposit taking non-banking finance company (NBFC-ND-SI), offering secured MSME Loans and Loans against Gold. 
Even through COVID-19, it had managed to more than double its AUM through its branch expansion efforts. However, its NIM declined over the track record period and profitability growth slowed. 


SBFC Finance Pre-IPO - Has Grown Fast While Maintaining Asset Quality

<ul>
<li>Oil is down dramatically from USD83.26 in April this year to USD67.37 now</li>
<li>DBS saw a surge in NPLs in FY16 from the oil price decline in that time</li>
<li>There appears to be some correlation between DBS and oil prices</li>
</ul>


Oil is down dramatically from USD83.26 in April this year to USD67.37 now
DBS saw a surge in NPLs in FY16 from the oil price decline in that time
There appears to be some correlation between DBS and oil prices


DBS - Beware of Oil Exposures like Last Time Oil Prices Declined

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>In the IPO space, Australia finally got its IPO counter ticking for the year with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/redox-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39847:1" rel="noopener">Redox (RDX AU)</a>.</li>
<li>On the placement front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infratil-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:596:1" rel="noopener">Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ)</a> raised to increase its stake in One NZ. While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skymark-airlines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20430:1" rel="noopener">Skymark Airlines (9204 JP)</a> will see a lockup expiry in the coming week.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, Australia finally got its IPO counter ticking for the year with Redox (RDX AU).
On the placement front, Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) raised to increase its stake in One NZ. While Skymark Airlines (9204 JP) will see a lockup expiry in the coming week.


ECM Weekly (11th June 2023) - Alibaba, Tencent, PDD, Redox, Amman, Kotak, Infratil, Skymark

Kotak Mahindra Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CPPIB aims to raise around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a>. </li>
<li>This is not the first time that CPPIB will be selling down some of its stake, the previous deal held up well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


CPPIB aims to raise around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN). 
This is not the first time that CPPIB will be selling down some of its stake, the previous deal held up well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Kotak Placement - Has Sold Before, Stock Has Run-Up Recently but It Has Still Underperformed

Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

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DBS (DBS SP)

UOB & DBS - Major Divergence In Bad Loans Over Past 2 Crises

UOB and DBS show vastly different rates of NPL growth in the past two crises, favoring the former. UOB's recent provisioning is far higher than...

Daniel Tabbush

SBFC Finance Pre-IPO - Has Grown Fast While Maintaining Asset Quality

SBFC Finance Limited (1547353D IN) is looking to raise up to US$145m in its upcoming India IPO. Even through COVID-19, it had managed to more than...

Ethan Aw

DBS - Beware of Oil Exposures like Last Time Oil Prices Declined

Oil prices are down dramatically, where DBS is exposed. This may explain what appears to be a good correlation, oil and DBS. Credit costs can rise...

Daniel Tabbush

ECM Weekly (11th June 2023) - Alibaba, Tencent, PDD, Redox, Amman, Kotak, Infratil, Skymark

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Kotak Placement - Has Sold Before, Stock Has Run-Up Recently but It Has Still Underperformed

CPPIB aims to raise around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN). The previous selldown by CPPIB held up well.

Sumeet Singh

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