IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a> at A$3.52 per share, a 44.3% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>To avoid a repeat of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> situation, if the scheme fails or is terminated, SQM will launch an off-market takeover offer at A$3.50.</li>
<li>Gina Rinehart is rumoured to have built a 14.5% stake, suggesting the final offer is an off-market takeover. The offer is conditional on FIRB approval. </li>
</ul>



Azure Minerals (AZS AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) at A$3.52 per share, a 44.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
To avoid a repeat of the Albemarle Corp (ALB US)/Liontown Resources (LTR AU) situation, if the scheme fails or is terminated, SQM will launch an off-market takeover offer at A$3.50.
Gina Rinehart is rumoured to have built a 14.5% stake, suggesting the final offer is an off-market takeover. The offer is conditional on FIRB approval. 


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM’s Rinehart-Proof Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>When lithium mining play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> was halted this week "regarding a potential change of control transaction", <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24555:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI)</a> was the obvious suitor.</li>
<li>This was confirmed this morning with a A$3.52/share Offer, a 44.3% premium to undisturbed, by way of a Scheme. A concurrent conditional off-market takeover at A$3.50/share is also present. </li>
<li>$3.50 is locked in, no matter what. Gina may take her stake up to 19.9%, but it won't affect the A$3.50 floor. But it may kickstart a competitive bidding situation. </li>
</ul>


When lithium mining play Azure Minerals (AZS AU) was halted this week "regarding a potential change of control transaction", Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI) was the obvious suitor.
This was confirmed this morning with a A$3.52/share Offer, a 44.3% premium to undisturbed, by way of a Scheme. A concurrent conditional off-market takeover at A$3.50/share is also present. 
$3.50 is locked in, no matter what. Gina may take her stake up to 19.9%, but it won't affect the A$3.50 floor. But it may kickstart a competitive bidding situation. 


Gina Can't "Liontown" SQM's Bid For Azure

<ul>
<li>Lithium mining play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> went into a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02728538-6A1175570?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trading halt</a> Monday (23 October) "regarding a potential change of control transaction". That halt has been extended to <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02729716-6A1176088?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Friday morning</a>. </li>
<li>The obvious suitor is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24555:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de C (SQM/B CI)</a> with 19.9%, who approached Azure with a $2.31/share Offer in August but was <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02697432-6A1163203?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a>.</li>
<li>Mark Creasy, a major shareholder in Azure and also a direct stakeholder in Azure's flagship mine, is the key. Should a firm Offer unfold, expect a chunky premium. </li>
</ul>


Lithium mining play Azure Minerals (AZS AU) went into a trading halt Monday (23 October) "regarding a potential change of control transaction". That halt has been extended to Friday morning. 
The obvious suitor is Sociedad Quimica y Minera de C (SQM/B CI) with 19.9%, who approached Azure with a $2.31/share Offer in August but was rejected.
Mark Creasy, a major shareholder in Azure and also a direct stakeholder in Azure's flagship mine, is the key. Should a firm Offer unfold, expect a chunky premium. 


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> launched its US$500m HK IPO earlier in the week, with more than half of the Offer Shares going to its pre-IPO shareholders.</li>
<li>It was a busy week for placements as well, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>'s stealing the spotlight with its equity/debt raising, after Albemarle withdrew its acquisition bid. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) launched its US$500m HK IPO earlier in the week, with more than half of the Offer Shares going to its pre-IPO shareholders.
It was a busy week for placements as well, with Liontown Resources (LTR AU)'s stealing the spotlight with its equity/debt raising, after Albemarle withdrew its acquisition bid. 


ECM Weekly (22nd Oct 2023) - J&T, Cuscal, Liontown, Cainiao, ZJLD, Taiwan Cement, Zomato, Hana Micro

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> earnings disappoints, buy the dip. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> is buying for the long-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China Holdings (2282 HK)</a> has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM's FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.</li>
<li>If you had a J-REIT portfolio, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.</li>
</ul>


If Descente Ltd (8114 JP) earnings disappoints, buy the dip. Itochu Corp (8001 JP) is buying for the long-term.

MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM's FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.
If you had a J-REIT portfolio, Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

Australia

Liontown Resources Ltd. explores for and mines base metals.

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Liontown Resources (LTR AU)

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM’s Rinehart-Proof Offer

The scheme consideration is A$3.52 per share. To avoid the Albermarle/Liontown debacle, the offer is Rinehart-proofed with an A$3.50 off-market...

Arun George

Gina Can't "Liontown" SQM's Bid For Azure

The two-pronged approach sets a clean floor going forward at a minimum A$3.50/share. Trading tight at A$3.49/share. If you think this transaction...

David Blennerhassett

Azure (AZS AU): SQM The Likely Suitor

Mark Creasy, a major shreholder in Azure and also a direct stakeholder in Azure's flaship mine, is the key. Should a firm Offer unfold, expect a...

David Blennerhassett

ECM Weekly (22nd Oct 2023) - J&T, Cuscal, Liontown, Cainiao, ZJLD, Taiwan Cement, Zomato, Hana Micro

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Clarence Chu

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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