IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genetron-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28435:1" rel="noopener">Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benesse-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12877:1" rel="noopener">Benesse Holdings (9783 JP)</a>, T&amp;K Toka. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US), JSR Corp (4185 JP).
Lowest spreads - Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Benefit One Inc (2412 JP), Benesse Holdings (9783 JP), T&amp;K Toka. 


Merger Arb Mondays (29 Jan) - Shinko, JSR, Payroll, T&K Toka, Weiqiao, Hollysys, Newmark, OreCorp

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> pre-conditional tender offer from JIC is JPY4,350 per share. Since the deal announcement, the gross spread has averaged 7.7%.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-condition related to China SAMR approval and potentially shareholder approval due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a>’s re-rating.</li>
<li>SAMR conditional approval would fit with the late February tender start timeline (at the earliest). Despite Shin-Etsu’s re-rating, the offer still looks reasonable.</li>
</ul>



JSR Corp (4185 JP) pre-conditional tender offer from JIC is JPY4,350 per share. Since the deal announcement, the gross spread has averaged 7.7%.
The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-condition related to China SAMR approval and potentially shareholder approval due to Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)’s re-rating.
SAMR conditional approval would fit with the late February tender start timeline (at the earliest). Despite Shin-Etsu’s re-rating, the offer still looks reasonable.


JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Risk/Reward in Context of Shin-Etsu’s Re-Rating and Looming Tender Start

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (1700674D IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brainbees-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36115:1" rel="noopener">FirstCry (0172540D IN)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/payroll-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33434:1" rel="noopener">Payroll (4489 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Amer Sports (AS US), Ola Electric (1700674D IN) and FirstCry (0172540D IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments - Payroll (4489 JP), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK). 


Weekly Deals Digest (28 Jan) - Amer Sports, CIMC Vehicles, CPMC, Hollysys, Payroll, T&K Toka, Shinko

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>'s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. Since the deal announcement, the gross spread has averaged 8.3%.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-conditions related to country approvals, particularly China and shareholder approval, due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a>’s re-rating.</li>
<li>Ibiden’s re-rating is not necessarily an issue. JIC’s confidence in securing SAMR approval for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> transaction by March is a positive for Shinko's SAMR approval. </li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)'s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. Since the deal announcement, the gross spread has averaged 8.3%.
The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-conditions related to country approvals, particularly China and shareholder approval, due to Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s re-rating.
Ibiden’s re-rating is not necessarily an issue. JIC’s confidence in securing SAMR approval for the JSR Corp (4185 JP) transaction by March is a positive for Shinko's SAMR approval. 


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The JIC Deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> started trading wide when announced five weeks ago. It is still at 9% for perhaps 9 months.</li>
<li>There is FUD. There are Flows. Just like JSR (4185). Some of that FUD can be explained by "gap risk" on deal break.... or can it? We look at risks.</li>
<li>5 weeks ago, there was more positioning risk than fundamental risk. But now main comp Ibiden has outperformed Shinko by 17%. Gap risk is fundamentally lower now. Bump risk exists.</li>
</ul>


The JIC Deal for Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) started trading wide when announced five weeks ago. It is still at 9% for perhaps 9 months.
There is FUD. There are Flows. Just like JSR (4185). Some of that FUD can be explained by "gap risk" on deal break.... or can it? We look at risks.
5 weeks ago, there was more positioning risk than fundamental risk. But now main comp Ibiden has outperformed Shinko by 17%. Gap risk is fundamentally lower now. Bump risk exists.


Shinko Electric (6967) Takeover:  Changing Break/Gap Risk as Comps Gain

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

Merger Arb Mondays (29 Jan) - Shinko, JSR, Payroll, T&K Toka, Weiqiao, Hollysys, Newmark, OreCorp

This week, the highest gross spreads are Hollysys (14.2%), Probiotec (8.7%), Shinko Electric (8.3%), Genetron (7.7%), JSR (7.4%), Adbri (4.6%), IRC...

Arun George

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Risk/Reward in Context of Shin-Etsu’s Re-Rating and Looming Tender Start

SAMR conditional approval would fit with the late February tender start timeline. Despite Shin-Etsu’s re-rating, the offer still looks reasonable....

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (28 Jan) - Amer Sports, CIMC Vehicles, CPMC, Hollysys, Payroll, T&K Toka, Shinko

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (CIMC Vehicles, CPMC, Weiqiao Textile, Hollysys, Payroll, TK Toka, Shinko, Newmark,...

Arun George

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Ibiden’s re-rating is not necessarily an issue. JIC’s confidence in securing SAMR approval for the JSR transaction by March is a positive for...

Arun George

Shinko Electric (6967) Takeover: Changing Break/Gap Risk as Comps Gain

Five weeks ago when the JIC deal was announced, Shinko traded wide. Since then, Shinko is up about 1%, Ibiden is up 17%. The minimal gap risk in...

Travis Lundy

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