Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Yashili International Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0506/2022050602098.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Offer, by way of a Scheme, from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>The cancellation price of HK$1.20/share, a 31.9% premium to last close, and a 161% premium to the undisturbed price, is in line with the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0316/2022031601535.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16 March announcement</a>.</li>
<li>Conditions involve various business disposals and the exit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a>'s stake in Yashili;  yet apart from timing, which is contingent on regulatory approvals, this looks done. </li>
</ul>



Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) has announced a pre-conditional Offer, by way of a Scheme, from China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK).
The cancellation price of HK$1.20/share, a 31.9% premium to last close, and a 161% premium to the undisturbed price, is in line with the 16 March announcement.
Conditions involve various business disposals and the exit of Danone SA (BN FP)'s stake in Yashili;  yet apart from timing, which is contingent on regulatory approvals, this looks done. 


Yashili (1230 HK)'s Pre-Conditional Offer From Mengniu

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu (2319 HK)</a> is in discussions regarding its holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili (1230 HK)</a> which may result in a number of Potential Transactions, and may include a pre-conditional privatisation offer.</li>
<li>The Potential Offer would involve a cancellation price of HK$1.20/share, a 31.9% premium to last close, and a 161% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The recent privatisation of key peer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)</a> provides a guideline to the timeline from here.</li>
</ul>



China Mengniu (2319 HK) is in discussions regarding its holdings in Yashili (1230 HK) which may result in a number of Potential Transactions, and may include a pre-conditional privatisation offer.
The Potential Offer would involve a cancellation price of HK$1.20/share, a 31.9% premium to last close, and a 161% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The recent privatisation of key peer Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK) provides a guideline to the timeline from here.


Yashili (1230 HK): Possible Mengniu Offer Amid Exchange Rights And Phantom Shares

<ul>
<li>Infant formula play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> is currently suspended "pursuant to The Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers".</li>
<li>Shares closed up 98% yesterday, on clear news leakage, before shares were suspended. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> holds 51.04% with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a> another 25%.  </li>
<li>This trading halt follows the recent successful Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)</a>, one of Yashili's key peers.</li>
</ul>


Infant formula play Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) is currently suspended "pursuant to The Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers".
Shares closed up 98% yesterday, on clear news leakage, before shares were suspended. China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) holds 51.04% with Danone SA (BN FP) another 25%.  
This trading halt follows the recent successful Offer for Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK), one of Yashili's key peers.


<ul>
<li>52.7%. The only number that matters. That satisfied the acceptance condition to the mandatory conditional cash Offer. But it was a close-run thing.</li>
<li>The Offer is now unconditional and will remain open for acceptance until the 17 March. </li>
<li>Yili has no intention to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)</a> and intends to maintain its listing following the close of the Offer.</li>
</ul>


52.7%. The only number that matters. That satisfied the acceptance condition to the mandatory conditional cash Offer. But it was a close-run thing.
The Offer is now unconditional and will remain open for acceptance until the 17 March. 
Yili has no intention to privatise Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK) and intends to maintain its listing following the close of the Offer.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/farm-fresh-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34617:1" rel="noopener">Farm Fresh Berhad (FF MY)</a> is a leading vertically integrated dairy player in Malaysia. It has launched an IPO to raise $239 million. </li>
<li>The business is navigating the normalisation of consumer demand and input cost inflation by delivering healthy growth, market share gains, creditable margin performance and cash generation. </li>
<li>Overall, this IPO is worth a closer look. The offer period is from 28 February to 10 March. The listing is on 22 March.   </li>
</ul>



Farm Fresh Berhad (FF MY) is a leading vertically integrated dairy player in Malaysia. It has launched an IPO to raise $239 million. 
The business is navigating the normalisation of consumer demand and input cost inflation by delivering healthy growth, market share gains, creditable margin performance and cash generation. 
Overall, this IPO is worth a closer look. The offer period is from 28 February to 10 March. The listing is on 22 March.   


China

Ausnutria Dairy Corporation Ltd is a paediatric milk formula company. The Company is engaged in the dairy industry with its production facilities based in the Netherlands. Ausnutria Dairy Corporation markets and sells dairy products to the People's Republic of China, Europe, North America, the Middle East, and other overseas countries.

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Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)

Yashili (1230 HK)'s Pre-Conditional Offer From Mengniu

HK$1.20/share will get up. I'd be a buyer here. I'd probably bid up to ~HK$1.13/share or a gross/annualised spread of 6.2%/15%.

David Blennerhassett

Yashili (1230 HK): Possible Mengniu Offer Amid Exchange Rights And Phantom Shares

I'd be a buyer here. There appears to be a directive to take these milk formula companies private. Mengniu is state-backed, and this is not a large...

David Blennerhassett

Yashili (1230 HK): More Formula Fortune?

There is, as yet, no definitive Offer. However, the suspension announcement and the large share price movement suggest an Offer is imminent. Or at...

David Blennerhassett

Ausnutria's Offer Gets Up. But Only Just

At HK$10.02/share as I type, Ausnutria is trading super tight at a gross/annualised spread of 0.4%/14.1%, assuming mid-March payment. Get involved...

David Blennerhassett

Farm Fresh IPO Initiation: Bet the Farm

Farm Fresh has launched an IPO to raise RM1 bn (US$239 m). The fundamentals are sound and this IPO is worth a look. The offer period is from 28...

Arun George

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