Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Event-Driven

Here is the latest list of high div yield stocks (near 5%) in KOSPI at the last close.The yields are based on the FnGuide consensus DPS.









Name
Ticker
DPS
Price
Div yield


Hana Financial Group Inc
086790
₩2,099
₩35,800
5.86%


Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings Co Ltd
267250
₩18,083
₩313,500
5.77%


Industrial Bank of Korea
024110
₩532
₩9,450
5.63%


BNK Financial Group Inc
138930
₩334
₩5,940
5.62%


JB Financial Group Co Ltd
175330
₩328
₩5,870
5.59%


DGB Financial Group Co Ltd
139130
₩391
₩7,290
5.36%


Kumho Industrial Co Ltd
002990
₩500
₩9,370
5.34%


Woori Financial Group Inc
316140
₩541
₩10,150
5.33%


Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.
055550
₩1,736
₩33,300
5.21%


KT&amp;G Corp
033780
₩4,563
₩88,400
5.16%


Samsung Securities Co Ltd
016360
₩2,171
₩42,950
5.05%


Lotte Foods Co Ltd
002270
₩17,000
₩342,500
4.96%


Samsung Card Co Ltd
029780
₩1,744
₩35,250
4.95%


Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance Co., Ltd
001450
₩1,150
₩23,450
4.90%


MERITZ SECURITIES CO LTD
008560
₩190
₩3,885
4.89%


GS Home Shopping Inc.
028150
₩7,000
₩143,500
4.88%

Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide











Name
Ticker
DTV/SO
DTV (₩B)
MC (₩B)


Hana Financial Group Inc
086790
0.57%
61.8
10,748.7


Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings Co Ltd
267250
0.42%
21.0
4,952.9


Industrial Bank of Korea
024110
0.34%
23.7
6,980.4


BNK Financial Group Inc
138930
1.04%
20.2
1,936.1


JB Financial Group Co Ltd
175330
0.34%
3.9
1,156.3


DGB Financial Group Co Ltd
139130
0.47%
5.8
1,233.1


Kumho Industrial Co Ltd
002990
3.71%
12.7
343.3


Woori Financial Group Inc
316140
0.27%
19.4
7,331.0


Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.
055550
0.58%
99.4
17,200.3


KT&amp;G Corp
033780
0.45%
54.2
12,136.7


Samsung Securities Co Ltd
016360
0.70%
27.0
3,835.4


Lotte Foods Co Ltd
002270
0.46%
1.8
387.7


Samsung Card Co Ltd
029780
0.14%
5.8
4,084.0


Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance Co., Ltd
001450
0.57%
12.0
2,096.4


MERITZ SECURITIES CO LTD
008560
0.40%
10.5
2,626.1


GS Home Shopping Inc.
028150
0.40%
3.8
941.7

Source: KRX



Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global Technology, Discretionary, and Manufacturing Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The Financial Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global Technology, Discretionary, and Manufacturing Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The Financial Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hana-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12843:1" rel="noopener">Hana Financial (086790 KS)</a> delivered positive fundamental momentum at Q220 on a LTM basis. It is not so common these days to find a bank which is actually improving its Profitability. Enhanced Asset Quality, improved Liquidity, stronger Provisioning, and better Efficiency were other highlights. Some erosion of Capital Adequacy was a negative.While Asset Quality improved, it was somewhat of a surprise that Asset Write downs, mainly Loan Loss Provisions, expanded so forcefully.In addition, Earnings Quality could have been better given the weight of "non Core Income" as a % of Pre-Tax Income. This exerts a downward pull on the CIR and inflates the bottom-line. "Core Income" was basically flat as "non-interest income" gains, from trading of securities and plenty of "other" items, partially offset a decrease in Net Interest Income.Valuations are, however, far from dear and RSI is low enough. FV, PBV, and Dividend and Earnings Yields stand at 3%, 0.31x, 7.3% and 28%, respectively.<div>
The PH Score™ is elevated at 10, supported by the valuation variable in part.
So on paper, Hana commands a trifecta of a low valuation, a subdued RSI, and a high PH Score™.
</div><div><div class="content-highlight">The PH Score™ is a fundamental momentum-quantamental score that scores banks according to changes in value-quality. The Score encompasses Profitability, Operating Efficiency, Liquidity, Capital, Asset Quality, and Coverage as well as a valuation variable. Scores lie between 0 and 10, with higher scores representing more positive signs. The PH Score™ was back tested over 2007-17 for global banks and conclusively shows progressively higher returns across quintiles ranked by Score. </div></div>

Hana Financial (086790 KS) delivered positive fundamental momentum at Q220 on a LTM basis. It is not so common these days to find a bank which is actually improving its Profitability. Enhanced Asset Quality, improved Liquidity, stronger Provisioning, and better Efficiency were other highlights. Some erosion of Capital Adequacy was a negative.While Asset Quality improved, it was somewhat of a surprise that Asset Write downs, mainly Loan Loss Provisions, expanded so forcefully.In addition, Earnings Quality could have been better given the weight of "non Core Income" as a % of Pre-Tax Income. This exerts a downward pull on the CIR and inflates the bottom-line. "Core Income" was basically flat as "non-interest income" gains, from trading of securities and plenty of "other" items, partially offset a decrease in Net Interest Income.Valuations are, however, far from dear and RSI is low enough. FV, PBV, and Dividend and Earnings Yields stand at 3%, 0.31x, 7.3% and 28%, respectively.
The PH Score™ is elevated at 10, supported by the valuation variable in part.
So on paper, Hana commands a trifecta of a low valuation, a subdued RSI, and a high PH Score™.
The PH Score™ is a fundamental momentum-quantamental score that scores banks according to changes in value-quality. The Score encompasses Profitability, Operating Efficiency, Liquidity, Capital, Asset Quality, and Coverage as well as a valuation variable. Scores lie between 0 and 10, with higher scores representing more positive signs. The PH Score™ was back tested over 2007-17 for global banks and conclusively shows progressively higher returns across quintiles ranked by Score. 

Hana Financial: Scores Well, Is Cheap, but Some Doubts Linger

South Korea

Hana Financial Group Inc., in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on December 1, 2005, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies.

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Hana Financial (086790 KS)

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Hana Financial: Scores Well, Is Cheap, but Some Doubts Linger

Hana Financial (086790 KS) delivered positive fundamental momentum at Q220 on a LTM basis. It is not so common these days to find a bank which is...

Paul Hollingworth

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

We believe commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials & Energy remain our favorite Sector overweights - add...

Vermilion Research

Div Play Stocks on T-1 Ex-Div in KOSPI

This insight filters the high div stocks in KOSPI for 1. arb trades using futures for short hedge and 2. unhedged outright trades based on 20D MA...

Sanghyun Park

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns across indexes, and we continue to...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Inflections Around The World

In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials & Energy Sectors.

Vermilion Research

Hana Financial: Scores Well, Is Cheap, but Some Doubts Linger

Hana Financial (086790 KS) delivered positive fundamental momentum at Q220 on a LTM basis. It is not so common these days to find a bank which is...

Paul Hollingworth