EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ol><li>Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV. Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double digits over the next 7-10 years annually. </li><li>Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed </li><li>Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve. </li></ol>

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV. Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double digits over the next 7-10 years annually. Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve. 

United States

Valero Energy Corporation is an independent petroleum refining and marketing company that owns and operates refineries in the United States, Canada, and Aruba.  The Company produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined products as well as diesel fuel, low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, and oxygenates.

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Valero Energy (VLO US)

Islam, Terror, Politics and Oil - Part 1

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment...

Emad Mostaque

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