Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

US-based online food delivery company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doordash-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28881:1" rel="noopener">DoorDash Inc (0881510D US)</a> has filed to go public. In this note we describe the company's operations and compare its scale and efficiency to other online food delivery companies in the US and around the globe. 
Intensely focused and increasingly dominant in its home market, DoorDash has made admirable progress toward profitability by focusing on smaller cities and suburban areas in the US. This approach is the opposite of conventional wisdom, which suggests that only a handful of large US cities can generate the order density necessary to make online food delivery economically viable. 
DoorDash is seeking growth from new market segments adjacent to its core operation even as it faces the threat of a large, disruptive new entrant in US online food delivery. Last valued at US$16 bn in June 2020, we believe DoorDash's unorthodox approach deserves to be thoroughly understood by investors. We will write more about DoorDash as the IPO process moves forward.

US-based online food delivery company DoorDash Inc (0881510D US) has filed to go public. In this note we describe the company's operations and compare its scale and efficiency to other online food delivery companies in the US and around the globe. 
Intensely focused and increasingly dominant in its home market, DoorDash has made admirable progress toward profitability by focusing on smaller cities and suburban areas in the US. This approach is the opposite of conventional wisdom, which suggests that only a handful of large US cities can generate the order density necessary to make online food delivery economically viable. 
DoorDash is seeking growth from new market segments adjacent to its core operation even as it faces the threat of a large, disruptive new entrant in US online food delivery. Last valued at US$16 bn in June 2020, we believe DoorDash's unorthodox approach deserves to be thoroughly understood by investors. We will write more about DoorDash as the IPO process moves forward.

DoorDash IPO Context: What It Is & How It Compares to Online Food Delivery Universe

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With Japanese shoppers still reluctant to visit stores too often, more are turning to online food shopping.This trend was already building gradually before the pandemic, but demand has grown massively in the past nine months and large and small food retailers alike are rushing to add more online capacity.The winners will be the ones able to solve the last mile problem and add some customer-centric innovations. The sector is currently led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> in its partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s </a>supermarket affiliate, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life Corp (8194 JP).</a> Others like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> are also investing for the long-term and even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> is having another go and we review the current status of all the main players below the fold.What is certain is that, with online penetration of the food retail sector still below 3%, there is plenty of share to mop up for all concerned.

With Japanese shoppers still reluctant to visit stores too often, more are turning to online food shopping.This trend was already building gradually before the pandemic, but demand has grown massively in the past nine months and large and small food retailers alike are rushing to add more online capacity.The winners will be the ones able to solve the last mile problem and add some customer-centric innovations. The sector is currently led by Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) in its partnership with Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s supermarket affiliate, Life Corp (8194 JP). Others like Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) and Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) are also investing for the long-term and even Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) is having another go and we review the current status of all the main players below the fold.What is certain is that, with online penetration of the food retail sector still below 3%, there is plenty of share to mop up for all concerned.

Online Food Demand Brings New Ideas and Innovations

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Equity Bottom-Up

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> takes the lead once again, becoming the market leader of the booming Indian smartphone industry. On an uptake, the third quarter appears to be a game changer for the industry - pushing it's performance to new heights, finally getting the sector back to normalcy.</li>
<li>Food aggregators <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOM IN)</a> and Swiggy have seen the difficult pandemic times turn into a green shoot for them. With Tier 2 cities booming with demand, they now focus on a pan India approach adding more and more restaurant partners under their umbrella every month.</li>
<li>Burger King India Ltd. is all geared up to come out with an IPO in India to raise INR 5.42 billion through an issue of 60 million shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> owned Flipkart to  buy a 7.8% stake in Aditya Birla Fashion. The purchase will not only help the company cut down its debt, but also help it have a better grounding whilst competing with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> .</li>
</ul>

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.


Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) takes the lead once again, becoming the market leader of the booming Indian smartphone industry. On an uptake, the third quarter appears to be a game changer for the industry - pushing it's performance to new heights, finally getting the sector back to normalcy.
Food aggregators Zomato (ZOM IN) and Swiggy have seen the difficult pandemic times turn into a green shoot for them. With Tier 2 cities booming with demand, they now focus on a pan India approach adding more and more restaurant partners under their umbrella every month.
Burger King India Ltd. is all geared up to come out with an IPO in India to raise INR 5.42 billion through an issue of 60 million shares.

Walmart (WMT US) owned Flipkart to  buy a 7.8% stake in Aditya Birla Fashion. The purchase will not only help the company cut down its debt, but also help it have a better grounding whilst competing with Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Reliance Industries (RIL IN) .


India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Xiaomi, Zomato, Swiggy, BurgerKing and Flipkart

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.
<ul>
<li>PUBG Corporation struggles to make a come back in India. After breaking ties with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> as their distribution partner in India - the company now looks at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> to be their godfather.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> pumps in another 7 billion INR into its payments platform Amazon Pay to give it the push it needs with the Indian festive season around the corner.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a> shines on in its journey back to normalcy with a great performance this quarter.</li>
</ul>

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.

PUBG Corporation struggles to make a come back in India. After breaking ties with Tencent Holdings (700 HK) as their distribution partner in India - the company now looks at Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) to be their godfather.

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) pumps in another 7 billion INR into its payments platform Amazon Pay to give it the push it needs with the Indian festive season around the corner.

Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) shines on in its journey back to normalcy with a great performance this quarter.


India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Airtel, Amazon & Titan

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Between early-2018 and late-2019, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> management took meaningful steps to attempt a narrowing of their discount to listed NAV, the most important of which was announcing the intended spin-off of all Naspers’ ex-South African internet assets into a new entity, Prosus, to be listed on Euronext Amsterdam, with a secondary listing on the JSE, which resulted in a narrowing of the discount from c.35% to c.25%. However, in the year since the listing of Prosus, we have seen a “double” discount manifest given Prosus’ c. 27% discount to its listed NAV as well as Naspers’ c. 29% discount to its listed NAV (which entirely comprises its 73% shareholding in Prosus). Intuitively, this seems excessive and, in this insight, I take a closer look at, what I believe to be, the top reasons for this discount, to find catalysts which might unlock value. I believe we will continue to see a c.25% holding company discount at Prosus, with another c.20% warranted at Naspers. I cannot, however, identify any catalysts that would cause the “double” discount to widen and have applied these values to my SOTP. I estimate fair value for Prosus at €101/share (31% upside) and Naspers at R4,404/share (47% upside).

Between early-2018 and late-2019, Naspers (NPN SJ) / Prosus (PRX NA) management took meaningful steps to attempt a narrowing of their discount to listed NAV, the most important of which was announcing the intended spin-off of all Naspers’ ex-South African internet assets into a new entity, Prosus, to be listed on Euronext Amsterdam, with a secondary listing on the JSE, which resulted in a narrowing of the discount from c.35% to c.25%. However, in the year since the listing of Prosus, we have seen a “double” discount manifest given Prosus’ c. 27% discount to its listed NAV as well as Naspers’ c. 29% discount to its listed NAV (which entirely comprises its 73% shareholding in Prosus). Intuitively, this seems excessive and, in this insight, I take a closer look at, what I believe to be, the top reasons for this discount, to find catalysts which might unlock value. I believe we will continue to see a c.25% holding company discount at Prosus, with another c.20% warranted at Naspers. I cannot, however, identify any catalysts that would cause the “double” discount to widen and have applied these values to my SOTP. I estimate fair value for Prosus at €101/share (31% upside) and Naspers at R4,404/share (47% upside).

Naspers: “Double” Discount Warranted? The Search for a Catalyst Continues

United States

Walmart Inc. operates discount stores, supercenters, and neighborhood markets. The Company offers merchandise such as apparel, house wares, small appliances, electronics, musical instruments, books, home improvement, shoes, jewelry, toddler, games, household essentials, pets, pharmaceutical products, party supplies, and automotive tools. Walmart serves customers worldwide.

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Walmart (WMT US)

DoorDash IPO Context: What It Is & How It Compares to Online Food Delivery Universe

US-based on-demand food delivery company DoorDash plans to list soon. In this note we show investors how DoorDash differs from some of its peers in...

Tracking Traffic

Online Food Demand Brings New Ideas and Innovations

E-commerce has less than 3% share of food retailing in Japan but this is about to change and fast. Amazon/Life is leading but Aeon, Rakuten and...

Michael Causton

India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Xiaomi, Zomato, Swiggy, BurgerKing and Flipkart

Our weekly monitor this week highlights Xiaomi's robust performance in India, Strategies deployed by food aggregators to gain market share. Burger...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Airtel, Amazon & Titan

This week we cover Airtel's attempt to reinforce its E-sports strategy with talks bring PUBG back, Amazon Pay gearing up for the festive season,...

Pranav Bhavsar

Naspers: “Double” Discount Warranted? The Search for a Catalyst Continues

Since the listing of Prosus, we have seen a “double” discount to listed NAV manifest at Naspers. I take a closer look at the top reasons for this...

Wium Malan, CFA

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