Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Recent underperformance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> holding reflects a strategic urgency. </li>
</ul>


Recent underperformance of Newmont Mining (NEM US) vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". 

PCCW Ltd (8 HK) has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.
Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s Oriental Land (4661 JP) holding reflects a strategic urgency. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

<ul>
<li>The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.</li>
<li>Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.</li>
<li>The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-hung-kai-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:111:1" rel="noopener">Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-solar-new-energy-technology-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16437:1" rel="noopener">Golden Solar New Energy Technology Holdings (1121 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Golden Solar New Energy Technology Holdings (1121 HK).


Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (27 Oct): Kwoks Still Buying SHK; Chairman Selling Golden Solar

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex (8698 JP)</a> and Docomo announced an agreement. It is not clear ANY of this has to happen at prices favourable to minorities. But equally, it won't be egregiously bad.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/people-s-insurance-co-group-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:362:1" rel="noopener">People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)</a>'s implied stub is at a lifetime low. The market is assigning HK$35.6bn less for its steady and profitable life/health insurance stub ops, year-to-date.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> is a growth stock, growing organically. It is a rare enough thing. If you want to buy the back end, wait until it gets here.</li>
</ul>



Monex (8698 JP) and Docomo announced an agreement. It is not clear ANY of this has to happen at prices favourable to minorities. But equally, it won't be egregiously bad.

People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)'s implied stub is at a lifetime low. The market is assigning HK$35.6bn less for its steady and profitable life/health insurance stub ops, year-to-date.

JMDC (4483 JP) is a growth stock, growing organically. It is a rare enough thing. If you want to buy the back end, wait until it gets here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Monex/NTT, PICC/PICC P&C, Vertex

Equity Capital Markets

New World Development / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> nudges an all-time low P/B and implied stub; as the privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">NWS Holdings (659 HK)</a> moves gradually forward. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on NWD/NWS are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



New World Development (17 HK) nudges an all-time low P/B and implied stub; as the privatisation of NWS Holdings (659 HK) moves gradually forward. 
Preceding my comments on NWD/NWS are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: NWD (17 HK) Is Cheap. It May Get Cheaper Still

<ul>
<li>Tactically, it isn't attractive owning <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> at 1% spread. Expect it to trade wider. There is still a fair bit of stock to come down the pipe.</li>
<li>Because of significant business overlap, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> looks very similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-assets-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:788:1" rel="noopener">Power Assets Holdings (6 HK)</a>. And CKI is coming up cheap on my monitor versus PAH.</li>
<li>There is less fundamental alpha to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> than before and more "just keep it because it is going up"-ness to the trade. </li>
</ul>


Tactically, it isn't attractive owning Toshiba (6502 JP) at 1% spread. Expect it to trade wider. There is still a fair bit of stock to come down the pipe.
Because of significant business overlap, CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) looks very similar to Power Assets Holdings (6 HK). And CKI is coming up cheap on my monitor versus PAH.
There is less fundamental alpha to Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) than before and more "just keep it because it is going up"-ness to the trade. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, CK Infra/Power Assets, Rakuten Bank, Haitong Int'l Sec

Hong Kong

Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited develops and invests in properties. The Company operates and manages hotels, properties, car parking, and transportation infrastructures. Sun Hung Kai Properties serves customers in Hong Kong.

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Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)

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