Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM US)</a> CDI selldown on 15 December will have to be bought by active shareholders, not passive; a relatively large reverse funding trade on the ASX rebal.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a>'s CEO steps down. However, operations/investments, and the ongoing tweaking of the organizational structure with respect to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, should continue unabated. </li>
<li>Activist shareholders and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> stuck with each other for years. The takeover allows both sides to escape their mutual bearhug,</li>
</ul>


The Newmont (NEM US) CDI selldown on 15 December will have to be bought by active shareholders, not passive; a relatively large reverse funding trade on the ASX rebal.

Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus NV (PRX NA)'s CEO steps down. However, operations/investments, and the ongoing tweaking of the organizational structure with respect to Tencent (700 HK), should continue unabated. 
Activist shareholders and Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) stuck with each other for years. The takeover allows both sides to escape their mutual bearhug,


Last Week in Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, PTT/PTTEP, Naspers/Prosus/Tencent, Itochu Techno

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>PBoC cut 25bps of RRR, being the second cut in 2023, and is expected to inject 500bn of liquidity into the system. The average RRR is 7.4% post cut</li>
<li>We look at the potential pair trade of China and HK for property.  The original thesis was that China offers higher growth to investors</li>
<li>Now, the thesis no longer holds.  The trade now becomes more complicated, given the moving pieces both from top down and bottom up.  We recommend single stock trade.</li>
</ul>


PBoC cut 25bps of RRR, being the second cut in 2023, and is expected to inject 500bn of liquidity into the system. The average RRR is 7.4% post cut
We look at the potential pair trade of China and HK for property.  The original thesis was that China offers higher growth to investors
Now, the thesis no longer holds.  The trade now becomes more complicated, given the moving pieces both from top down and bottom up.  We recommend single stock trade.


China RRR Cut, Macro, & A Debate on – Property Pair Trade “Long China and Short HK” (Or the Reverse)

Equity Bottom-Up

Sun Hung Kai Properties / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-hung-kai-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:111:1" rel="noopener">Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)</a> released its interim results, shares declined 12.7% intra-day this past Monday, touching a 14-year low, before closing down 9.5%. </li>
<li>The same day, the Kwok family increased their stake in the company, purchasing ~2.2mn shares for ~HK$175mn.  </li>
<li>SHKP is currently trading a trailing P/B of 0.36x versus its five-year average of 0.54x, and the five-year average preceding Covid of 0.68x.</li>
</ul>


After Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) released its interim results, shares declined 12.7% intra-day this past Monday, touching a 14-year low, before closing down 9.5%. 
The same day, the Kwok family increased their stake in the company, purchasing ~2.2mn shares for ~HK$175mn.  
SHKP is currently trading a trailing P/B of 0.36x versus its five-year average of 0.54x, and the five-year average preceding Covid of 0.68x.


Sun Hung Kai (16 HK): The Kwoks Step In To Stem The Tide

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuexiu-property-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18097:1" rel="noopener">Yuexiu Property (123 HK)</a> Rights start trading today. Last day is next Monday. There is a general pattern to the flows and it behooves investors to be aware.</li>
<li>There is a pattern to these trades which is worth understanding.</li>
<li>In this case, I expect it is worth going long Yuexiu Rights vs Short peer basket equity earlier in the cycle.</li>
</ul>


The Yuexiu Property (123 HK) Rights start trading today. Last day is next Monday. There is a general pattern to the flows and it behooves investors to be aware.
There is a pattern to these trades which is worth understanding.
In this case, I expect it is worth going long Yuexiu Rights vs Short peer basket equity earlier in the cycle.


<ul>
<li>While most HK equities are still trading at attractive valuation, it does not mean they can re-rate and many of them can remain value traps</li>
<li>However with the banking crisis, asset owners are moving their capital to Asia.  Hong Kong gov is doing everything to attract family office business</li>
<li>This, along with improving macro outlook, can drive re-rating.  BUY SHKP 16 HK and NWD 17 HK</li>
</ul>


While most HK equities are still trading at attractive valuation, it does not mean they can re-rate and many of them can remain value traps
However with the banking crisis, asset owners are moving their capital to Asia.  Hong Kong gov is doing everything to attract family office business
This, along with improving macro outlook, can drive re-rating.  BUY SHKP 16 HK and NWD 17 HK


HK Equity: 1) Strong Capital Inflow, 2) Pro-Growth Policy, 3) Better Macro Outlook to Drive Rerating

Hong Kong

Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited develops and invests in properties. The Company operates and manages hotels, properties, car parking, and transportation infrastructures. Sun Hung Kai Properties serves customers in Hong Kong.

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Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, PTT/PTTEP, Naspers/Prosus/Tencent, Itochu Techno

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

China RRR Cut, Macro, & A Debate on – Property Pair Trade “Long China and Short HK” (Or the Reverse)

The RRR cut is another step of China's easing. We looked at the old pair trade between China and HK for property. The picture today is more...

Jacob Cheng

Sun Hung Kai (16 HK): The Kwoks Step In To Stem The Tide

I can't think of a compelling reason to get exposure in SHKP here. I can think of a number of compelling reasons not to.

David Blennerhassett

Yuexiu Rights - The Trading Pattern Fits

Yuexiu Property (123 HK) Rights are trading today. The stock is trading down, as expected, as those who do not wish to re-up sell their rights. I...

Travis Lundy

HK Equity: 1) Strong Capital Inflow, 2) Pro-Growth Policy, 3) Better Macro Outlook to Drive Rerating

Recent banking crisis and related capital flows creates opportunities for Hong Kong. Capital inflow, pro-growth policy and improving macro...

Jacob Cheng

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