Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this week, I’ve been doing back of the envelope calculations based on my property portfolio to show how screwed tracking prices in property investments can be.I believe such coverage of property price performance is wholly misleading and misrepresents real returns for investors and home buyers.A  home and a home price  that was transacted even 10 years ago was a substantially different home to today’s home. A recognized stock price (not DRYS!)  over 10 years has a much better chance of reflecting price movements that correspond to positive and negative returns to the investor directly.The distortion in property prices comes from a slew of adjustments we need to make, and which can shave several percent off a value per year! I’ve used my own property transaction data to work out the adjustments that should be made. There are two main categories which need to be made (with many sub-categories).

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this week, I’ve been doing back of the envelope calculations based on my property portfolio to show how screwed tracking prices in property investments can be.I believe such coverage of property price performance is wholly misleading and misrepresents real returns for investors and home buyers.A  home and a home price  that was transacted even 10 years ago was a substantially different home to today’s home. A recognized stock price (not DRYS!)  over 10 years has a much better chance of reflecting price movements that correspond to positive and negative returns to the investor directly.The distortion in property prices comes from a slew of adjustments we need to make, and which can shave several percent off a value per year! I’ve used my own property transaction data to work out the adjustments that should be made. There are two main categories which need to be made (with many sub-categories).

Case-Shiller Property Indices Hugely Misleading...and Different from Stocks (LT Invst Windows Tight)

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>The consensus expected a rampant USD this year, but this wasn’t consistent with the Trump trade agenda – the dollar has had its worst January in over a decade.</li>
<li>That has helped the US tech sector rebound strongly from the post-election selloff, as have the leading Chinese web names – secular growth is back in fashion.</li>
<li>The Q4 results from Microsoft, Intel and Alphabet indicated that cloud computing is the most significant near-term driver of tech sector revenues but AI will follow soon.</li>
<li>Alibaba is…</li>
</ul>


The consensus expected a rampant USD this year, but this wasn’t consistent with the Trump trade agenda – the dollar has had its worst January in over a decade.
That has helped the US tech sector rebound strongly from the post-election selloff, as have the leading Chinese web names – secular growth is back in fashion.
The Q4 results from Microsoft, Intel and Alphabet indicated that cloud computing is the most significant near-term driver of tech sector revenues but AI will follow soon.
Alibaba is…


Tech Rebounds as USD Reverses, Macau Recovery Continues...

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in favour of more specific targets, to be pursued by bilateral negotiations/ultimatums in addition to the usual multilateral channels. The Trump team is targeting four distinct areas to help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance, all of which touch on what the Chinese authorities perceive as vital national interests, so it is difficult to identify any…

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in favour of more specific targets, to be pursued by bilateral negotiations/ultimatums in addition to the usual multilateral channels. The Trump team is targeting four distinct areas to help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance, all of which touch on what the Chinese authorities perceive as vital national interests, so it is difficult to identify any…

Trump and China; the Calm Before the Storm?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

Warren Buffett has mentioned that he has two buckets of paper on his working desk – One bucket is for companies and industries that he tries to analyze and better understand. The other bucket is about areas that are “too difficult to understand” even for the Oracle of Omaha. Warren Buffett, the greatest value investor in the world, has repeatedly emphasized that investors’ time are probably better spent analyzing the industry and competitive dynamics of a company rather than worry about the…

Warren Buffett has mentioned that he has two buckets of paper on his working desk – One bucket is for companies and industries that he tries to analyze and better understand. The other bucket is about areas that are “too difficult to understand” even for the Oracle of Omaha. Warren Buffett, the greatest value investor in the world, has repeatedly emphasized that investors’ time are probably better spent analyzing the industry and competitive dynamics of a company rather than worry about the…

Warren Buffett's Two Buckets & The Dilemma for Value Vs. Macro Investors in Emerging Markets in 2017

Independent, global risk consultancy, Control Risks

Aparajita Verma

Independent, global risk consultancy

Control Risks

Control Risks is an independent, global risk consultancy specialising in helping organisations manage political, integrity and security risks in complex and hostile environments. We support clients by providing strategic consultancy, expert analysis and in-depth investigations, handling sensitive political issues and providing practical on-the-ground protection and support.

Our unique combination of services, geographical reach and the trust our clients place in us ensure we can help them to effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.

<a href="http://riskmap.controlrisks.com/team-view/bill-udell/" target="_blank">Bill Udell</a> and <a href="http://riskmap.controlrisks.com/team-view/jonathan-wood/" target="_blank">Jonathan Wood</a> talk about how companies are becoming susceptible to a more fragmented, less predictable global terrorism threat in 2017, and how are they adjusting risk management practices to tackle the evolving threat.

 Bill Udell and Jonathan Wood talk about how companies are becoming susceptible to a more fragmented, less predictable global terrorism threat in 2017, and how are they adjusting risk management practices to tackle the evolving threat.

United States

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is a holding company owning subsidiaries in a variety of business sectors.  The Company's principal operations are insurance business conducted nationwide on a primary basis and worldwide on a reinsurance basis. Berkshire's other operations include a railway company, a specialty chemical company, and an international association of diversified businesses.

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Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US)

Case-Shiller Property Indices Hugely Misleading...and Different from Stocks (LT Invst Windows Tight)

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this...

Charles De Trenck

Tech Rebounds as USD Reverses, Macau Recovery Continues...

The consensus expected a rampant USD this year, but this wasn’t consistent with the Trump trade agenda – the dollar has had its worst January in...

Sean Maher

Trump and China; the Calm Before the Storm?

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in...

John-Paul Smith

Warren Buffett's Two Buckets & The Dilemma for Value Vs. Macro Investors in Emerging Markets in 2017

Warren Buffett has mentioned that he has two buckets of paper on his working desk – One bucket is for companies and industries that he tries to...

Douglas Kim

Fragmented Terror Threat

Bill Udell and Jonathan Wood talk about how companies are becoming susceptible to a more fragmented, less predictable global terrorism threat in...

Control Risks

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